What is al Qaeda
Rand Corporation analyst discuss al Qaeda and bin Laden.
"Hoffman: Al Qaeda is an ideology more than army; a transnational movement and umbrella-like organization, not a monolithic entity. Al Qaeda's strength has always been its ability to function on multiple operational levels. It uses professional terrorists, closely linked to the al Qaeda command and control nucleus, for spectacular, highly lucrative strikes such as 9/11, the 1998 embassy bombings, and the attack on the USS Cole, etc. in some instances. It uses affiliated or associated groups it has trained, armed or otherwise inspired such as the Jemmah Islamiya, the predominantly Indonesian/Malayan/Filipino group, responsible for the October 2002 Bali bombings or the Sudanese group al Ittihad al Islamiya, which committed the attacks against Israeli targets the following month in Kenya. And it uses the so-called "local walk-ins"-- individuals or groups with no previous direct, demonstrable al Qaeda connection, but who are inspired, motivated or animated by bin Laden and his implacable message of enmity against the West, the US and Zionism. Because al Qaeda is neither monolithic nor leaves a single, identifiable "footprint," nor has one set modus operandi, the movement itself is all the more formidable and resilient."
"...Jenkins: Al Qaeda is more than an organization. It is an ideology, a galaxy of extremists, and an enterprise for turning Islam's discontents into commitment for its brand of Jihad. The pre- 9-11 al Qaeda was chaired by Osama bin Laden, and comprised a consultative council, separate divisions devoted to specific functional areas--training, operations, education, etc. -- a global network of paid operatives, centralized training, an extensive recruiting network, and a large population of trained veterans. Al Qaeda maintained relations with and offered training and other forms of assistance to members of like-minded groups, although these groups have kept their own organizational structures. Since 9-11, al Qaeda appears to have adapted to a more hostile operating environment with greater clandestinity, a smaller physical infrastructure, and more decentralized operations relying on already dispersed Afghanistan veterans and affiliated groups."
"...Jenkins: Osama bin Laden has charisma and connections. It is hard to imagine any of his current lieutenants being able to inspire recruits or bring in the contributions as well as bin Laden. However, al Qaeda reflects a broader phenomenon. Al Qaeda itself is always changing; it may dissolve. The phenomenon will certainly continue.
"Treverton: Alas, we have known for a long time that the number of people out their willing to die for almost any cause is disturbingly large, even in our own country. So the foot soldiers -- or suicide bombers -- are not in short supply. What is harder for the terrorists is the combination of money, organization and charisma that bin Laden represents. That is harder to replace."
Using WMD--
"...Hoffman: The evidence from Afghanistan and elsewhere suggests that if al Qaeda could acquire WMD, it would doubtless use such weapons. Certainly, its intentions in the chemical, biological, radiological and even nuclear realms were clearly revealed by information and documents seized by US and coalition forces in Afghanistan. The abortive efforts of an al Qaeda affiliated group of amateur terrorists to use the poison ricin, which were revealed in the arrests of a group of Algerians and others in London in January 2003, are fundamentally disquieting. Indeed, if this group of mostly amateurs and adolescents was considering using such a weapon, one can only shudder to think what their more professional confederates may be planning. However, with the loss of operational bases, command headquarters and R&D facilities in Afghanistan, al Qaeda's efforts to use such weapons will be more difficult...."
"...Jenkins: Al Qaeda's capabilities trail its ambitions. We know that it has some toxic chemicals, has made some attempts to produce ricin, and has expressed interest in nuclear and radiological weapons. It would be an overstatement to label these weapons of mass destruction. Al Qaeda used hijacked airliners as weapons of mass destruction. There is no evidence that it has chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear capabilities that give it that magnitude of destructive power...."
I think their biggest hurdle is coming up with a delivery system. It is hard for even a suicial person to deliver WMD to the same effect al Qaeda had with driving planes into buildings.
Al Qaeda and the Taliban--
"Jenkins: Al Qaeda was the guest who ate the host. By providing the Taliban with resources--manpower, money, and technical support, al Qaeda evolved from helpful to essential to dominant. It suggests a pattern. Groups affiliated with al Qaeda initially may be independent, but gradually al Qaeda will use its resources and training to improve local effectiveness while increasing its own control."
The "war on terror"--
"Hoffman: The most important metric in the war against terrorism is our ability first to prevent al Qaeda from carrying out a repeat of the 9/11 attacks along the same scale and with the same consequences either in the United States or anywhere else in the world. On that count, the war against terrorism thus far has clearly been successful. The second is our ability to severely constrain al Qaeda's operational capabilities, to diminish its ability to mount terrorist attacks anywhere and to force them to pay as much attention to their personal security and survival than to planning and plotting attacks. In this respect too, the war against terrorism has been successful. However, that said, the threat is not ended and the war is not over.
"In this respect, we must understand that if this is a "war" against terrorism, than it is unlike any other war that the U.S. has fought. This war did not have a distinct start (although some mistakenly see 9/11 as the opening salvo), nor will it have a definitive end. It will also not be fought in a specific theater of conflict as past wars the U.S. fought were and it will be long. Since al Qaeda is not an army, but an ideological transnational movement, there is no enemy military force physically to defeat. In fact, our enemies have defined this conflict, from their perspective, as a war of attrition designed eventually to wear down our resolve and will to resist.
"In the past decade, we have gotten used to wars lasting week or months. Our enemies see this conflict as an epic struggle that will last years, if not decades. It may not always be at the same levels of intensity and frequency, but--as there has long been with terrorism generally--there will be periods of relative quiet punctuated by times of sharper, more febrile activity (and a succession of attacks). The challenge therefore for the U.S. and other countries enmeshed in this conflict is to maintain focus, and not to become complacent about security or our prowess. We can’t afford to rest on past laurels and successes, but need to realize that terrorism is like the archetypal shark in the water: constantly moving forward to survive. In terrorist terms, this means constantly seeking to identify and exploit vulnerabilities and gaps in their enemy's defenses and then to strike.
"Al Qaeda, for example, like other terrorist groups, puts its faith in the enormous potential rejuvenating or regenerative power of even a single terrorist attack. For that reason, efforts to probe our defenses and repeatedly endeavor to marshal their resources for attack will continue at some level or another. The challenge for us is to ensure that our countermeasures and response capabilities are equally as dynamic and innovative: capable of adapting and adjusting to the changes we see and will see in terrorist modus operandi, tactics, and targeting."
Rand Corporation analyst discuss al Qaeda and bin Laden.
"Hoffman: Al Qaeda is an ideology more than army; a transnational movement and umbrella-like organization, not a monolithic entity. Al Qaeda's strength has always been its ability to function on multiple operational levels. It uses professional terrorists, closely linked to the al Qaeda command and control nucleus, for spectacular, highly lucrative strikes such as 9/11, the 1998 embassy bombings, and the attack on the USS Cole, etc. in some instances. It uses affiliated or associated groups it has trained, armed or otherwise inspired such as the Jemmah Islamiya, the predominantly Indonesian/Malayan/Filipino group, responsible for the October 2002 Bali bombings or the Sudanese group al Ittihad al Islamiya, which committed the attacks against Israeli targets the following month in Kenya. And it uses the so-called "local walk-ins"-- individuals or groups with no previous direct, demonstrable al Qaeda connection, but who are inspired, motivated or animated by bin Laden and his implacable message of enmity against the West, the US and Zionism. Because al Qaeda is neither monolithic nor leaves a single, identifiable "footprint," nor has one set modus operandi, the movement itself is all the more formidable and resilient."
"...Jenkins: Al Qaeda is more than an organization. It is an ideology, a galaxy of extremists, and an enterprise for turning Islam's discontents into commitment for its brand of Jihad. The pre- 9-11 al Qaeda was chaired by Osama bin Laden, and comprised a consultative council, separate divisions devoted to specific functional areas--training, operations, education, etc. -- a global network of paid operatives, centralized training, an extensive recruiting network, and a large population of trained veterans. Al Qaeda maintained relations with and offered training and other forms of assistance to members of like-minded groups, although these groups have kept their own organizational structures. Since 9-11, al Qaeda appears to have adapted to a more hostile operating environment with greater clandestinity, a smaller physical infrastructure, and more decentralized operations relying on already dispersed Afghanistan veterans and affiliated groups."
"...Jenkins: Osama bin Laden has charisma and connections. It is hard to imagine any of his current lieutenants being able to inspire recruits or bring in the contributions as well as bin Laden. However, al Qaeda reflects a broader phenomenon. Al Qaeda itself is always changing; it may dissolve. The phenomenon will certainly continue.
"Treverton: Alas, we have known for a long time that the number of people out their willing to die for almost any cause is disturbingly large, even in our own country. So the foot soldiers -- or suicide bombers -- are not in short supply. What is harder for the terrorists is the combination of money, organization and charisma that bin Laden represents. That is harder to replace."
Using WMD--
"...Hoffman: The evidence from Afghanistan and elsewhere suggests that if al Qaeda could acquire WMD, it would doubtless use such weapons. Certainly, its intentions in the chemical, biological, radiological and even nuclear realms were clearly revealed by information and documents seized by US and coalition forces in Afghanistan. The abortive efforts of an al Qaeda affiliated group of amateur terrorists to use the poison ricin, which were revealed in the arrests of a group of Algerians and others in London in January 2003, are fundamentally disquieting. Indeed, if this group of mostly amateurs and adolescents was considering using such a weapon, one can only shudder to think what their more professional confederates may be planning. However, with the loss of operational bases, command headquarters and R&D facilities in Afghanistan, al Qaeda's efforts to use such weapons will be more difficult...."
"...Jenkins: Al Qaeda's capabilities trail its ambitions. We know that it has some toxic chemicals, has made some attempts to produce ricin, and has expressed interest in nuclear and radiological weapons. It would be an overstatement to label these weapons of mass destruction. Al Qaeda used hijacked airliners as weapons of mass destruction. There is no evidence that it has chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear capabilities that give it that magnitude of destructive power...."
I think their biggest hurdle is coming up with a delivery system. It is hard for even a suicial person to deliver WMD to the same effect al Qaeda had with driving planes into buildings.
Al Qaeda and the Taliban--
"Jenkins: Al Qaeda was the guest who ate the host. By providing the Taliban with resources--manpower, money, and technical support, al Qaeda evolved from helpful to essential to dominant. It suggests a pattern. Groups affiliated with al Qaeda initially may be independent, but gradually al Qaeda will use its resources and training to improve local effectiveness while increasing its own control."
The "war on terror"--
"Hoffman: The most important metric in the war against terrorism is our ability first to prevent al Qaeda from carrying out a repeat of the 9/11 attacks along the same scale and with the same consequences either in the United States or anywhere else in the world. On that count, the war against terrorism thus far has clearly been successful. The second is our ability to severely constrain al Qaeda's operational capabilities, to diminish its ability to mount terrorist attacks anywhere and to force them to pay as much attention to their personal security and survival than to planning and plotting attacks. In this respect too, the war against terrorism has been successful. However, that said, the threat is not ended and the war is not over.
"In this respect, we must understand that if this is a "war" against terrorism, than it is unlike any other war that the U.S. has fought. This war did not have a distinct start (although some mistakenly see 9/11 as the opening salvo), nor will it have a definitive end. It will also not be fought in a specific theater of conflict as past wars the U.S. fought were and it will be long. Since al Qaeda is not an army, but an ideological transnational movement, there is no enemy military force physically to defeat. In fact, our enemies have defined this conflict, from their perspective, as a war of attrition designed eventually to wear down our resolve and will to resist.
"In the past decade, we have gotten used to wars lasting week or months. Our enemies see this conflict as an epic struggle that will last years, if not decades. It may not always be at the same levels of intensity and frequency, but--as there has long been with terrorism generally--there will be periods of relative quiet punctuated by times of sharper, more febrile activity (and a succession of attacks). The challenge therefore for the U.S. and other countries enmeshed in this conflict is to maintain focus, and not to become complacent about security or our prowess. We can’t afford to rest on past laurels and successes, but need to realize that terrorism is like the archetypal shark in the water: constantly moving forward to survive. In terrorist terms, this means constantly seeking to identify and exploit vulnerabilities and gaps in their enemy's defenses and then to strike.
"Al Qaeda, for example, like other terrorist groups, puts its faith in the enormous potential rejuvenating or regenerative power of even a single terrorist attack. For that reason, efforts to probe our defenses and repeatedly endeavor to marshal their resources for attack will continue at some level or another. The challenge for us is to ensure that our countermeasures and response capabilities are equally as dynamic and innovative: capable of adapting and adjusting to the changes we see and will see in terrorist modus operandi, tactics, and targeting."
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