North Korea cannot win
Jim Dunnigan in an interview with South Korean television:
"...Who will win another Korean War? Well, the North Koreans can't win. They have no allies and despite having more troops (1.1 million to 600,000), tanks (3600 to 2200) and artillery (12,000 to 5,000), they were doing the attacking and were at a disadvantage in the quality department. The defender has huge advantages in Korea, where the 250 kilometer DMZ is heavily fortified in depth. The South Koreans are better trained and have had more combat experience in the last fifty years. The northerners disadvantages will add up to a very low probability of success. A future war is the southerners to lose.
"What advantages does South Korea have? The major ones are quality, lots of it. South Korean weapons and equipment are two or three generations more modern than what the north has. Moreover, a decade of economic decline have reduced training in the north. The north does not have the fuel or money for spare parts. They can train their infantry, and they do, hoping to use better training infantry to break through the fortifications and mountain ridges along the DMZ. The south also has a morale advantage. Southern troops are from a democracy and know exactly what they are fighting for. Moreover, don't forget that it has never been U.S. policy to plan or prepare for an attack into the north. The Pentagon wargaming I have seen for over three decades has always been on how to defend South Korea. This means that the north will have to attack into heavily fortified mountains, which constitute most of the 250 kilometers long DMZ. The weapons advantage of the south is enormous. The South Korean K-1 tanks are similar to the American M-1, and would have the same effect on the North Korean tanks as American M-1s had on Iraqi tanks in 1991 and 2003. Moreover, Iraq actually had a more modern tank force than North Korea has. Most of North Koreas tanks are 1950s vintage T-55s. Same situation in the air and at sea. We know, from experience, that the North Koreans can train their troops (who are drafted for up to seven years service) to a high degree of skill. And a well trained soldier with inferior weapons is still a formidable force. But it's more than the troops. The training in the north is mainly drills, while in the south there get more effective American style training that emphasizes realism and dealing with a how your opponent will actually operate."
Jim Dunnigan in an interview with South Korean television:
"...Who will win another Korean War? Well, the North Koreans can't win. They have no allies and despite having more troops (1.1 million to 600,000), tanks (3600 to 2200) and artillery (12,000 to 5,000), they were doing the attacking and were at a disadvantage in the quality department. The defender has huge advantages in Korea, where the 250 kilometer DMZ is heavily fortified in depth. The South Koreans are better trained and have had more combat experience in the last fifty years. The northerners disadvantages will add up to a very low probability of success. A future war is the southerners to lose.
"What advantages does South Korea have? The major ones are quality, lots of it. South Korean weapons and equipment are two or three generations more modern than what the north has. Moreover, a decade of economic decline have reduced training in the north. The north does not have the fuel or money for spare parts. They can train their infantry, and they do, hoping to use better training infantry to break through the fortifications and mountain ridges along the DMZ. The south also has a morale advantage. Southern troops are from a democracy and know exactly what they are fighting for. Moreover, don't forget that it has never been U.S. policy to plan or prepare for an attack into the north. The Pentagon wargaming I have seen for over three decades has always been on how to defend South Korea. This means that the north will have to attack into heavily fortified mountains, which constitute most of the 250 kilometers long DMZ. The weapons advantage of the south is enormous. The South Korean K-1 tanks are similar to the American M-1, and would have the same effect on the North Korean tanks as American M-1s had on Iraqi tanks in 1991 and 2003. Moreover, Iraq actually had a more modern tank force than North Korea has. Most of North Koreas tanks are 1950s vintage T-55s. Same situation in the air and at sea. We know, from experience, that the North Koreans can train their troops (who are drafted for up to seven years service) to a high degree of skill. And a well trained soldier with inferior weapons is still a formidable force. But it's more than the troops. The training in the north is mainly drills, while in the south there get more effective American style training that emphasizes realism and dealing with a how your opponent will actually operate."
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