Ukraine attacks on Russian rear impacting Russian morale
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Ukrainian strikes against Russian deep rear areas are generating discontent in the Russian information space and sparking criticism of the Russian military command, as Ukraine likely intends. Some Russian milbloggers expressed anger at recent Ukrainian strikes on the Kerch Strait Bridge and called for Russian forces to target the families, homes, and other properties of Ukrainian decisionmakers to deter further Ukrainian strikes against Russian deep rear areas.[5] The milbloggers referenced prior Soviet and Russian retaliatory strategies in Lebanon and in the northern Caucasus, and one milblogger claimed that it is easy for Russian officials to disregard the need for retaliation because Ukrainian strikes do not directly impact their livelihoods. Former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed on August 20 that strikes against Moscow are becoming normalized following three consecutive days of alleged Ukrainian strikes against the city and called on Russian forces to make retaliatory strikes “personally painful” for decisionmakers who ordered the Moscow strikes.[6] A Russian insider source claimed that Russian air defenses did not activate to defend against an overnight strike against a Kursk City rail station on August 19 to 20, highlighting a frequent milblogger complaint that Russian forces fail to defend against strikes on Russian territory.[7] The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessed that the Russian leadership has likely been pressuring the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) command to improve Russian air defense coverage in western Russia, suggesting that both the higher Russian leadership and the ultranationalist information space are placing pressure on the Russian military command in response to the strikes.[8]
Ukrainian strikes on Russian rear areas are demonstrably degrading the morale of Russian forces in Ukraine, which could threaten the stability of Russian defenses on multiple critical areas of the front. Russian frontline units, particularly in southern Ukraine, have frequently struggled with degraded morale following Ukrainian strikes on rear areas.[9] Morale issues can quickly intensify and spread among Russian frontline units if one unit under pressure breaks, which could spread panic and significantly reduce the combat effectiveness of other Russian forces. A broken Russian frontline unit would threaten the integrity of other frontline defenses, and such a break in the Russian frontline would provide a vulnerability that Ukrainian forces could exploit. Russian forces also likely lack the necessary reserves to rotate out or quickly replace a broken unit, as ISW has previously assessed, making the preservation of morale in frontline units imperative.[10] Morale issues pertaining to the Russian defense against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are only relevant if Ukrainian forces can degrade Russian morale to the breaking point and take advantage of it; these morale issues will not matter if Russian forces do not break under this pressure. There is no way to predict if, when, or where a Russian unit might break under sustained pressure, but Ukrainian forces are setting conditions to increase the likelihood of such a development.
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The Ukrainian attacks on the bridges are designed to impact Russian logistics. That has a multi-fold impact on the Russian military indicating there is no safety in the military's rear and the Russian military has to struggle to support its troops on the front. These attacks have caused substantial delays in providing food and ammo to the troops. That has a direct impact on the morale of troops not only in the rear but also on the front lines.
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Soldiers on Ukraine's front lines say Russian forces have resorted to desperate maneuvers — sometimes firing upon their own men — to combat the summer counteroffensive strategies supported by Ukraine's Western allies.
As the invasion continues into its 18th month, incidents of friendly fire among Russian troops aren't new. Still, according to a report from The New York Times, Russian forces are apparently showing progressively less concern for their own troops as they face off against Ukrainian soldiers.
Just after Ukraine's counteroffensive was launched, that disregard was highlighted after three days of close-quarters fighting in a June battle for the village of Neskuchne, located in the Donetsk oblast province on the left bank of the Mokri Yaly river.
"The Russians attempted counterattacks, tried to squeeze us out, to encircle us but everything happened as we envisioned," a deputy battalion commander of 129th Territorial Defense Brigade, who goes by the call sign Kherson, told the outlet. "We also had strong support from artillery and the higher command."
After it became clear that Russia would have to cede the territory they had taken, the commander said Russian forces resorted to indiscriminately firing rockets at the battlefield, killing many of their own soldiers.
"They buried quite a lot of their own guys," Kherson told The Times.
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Unsuccessful Russian offensive on Bakhmut front – General Staff report
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Significance of Ukraine’s breakthrough near Tokmak and damage to Russian strategic aircraft — ISW
Ukraine’s recent success in breaking through mined territory near Tokmak in Zaporizhzhya Oblast is likely connected to the latest progress of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Robotyne, believes U.S.-based thinktank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Aug. 19.
Following a drone strike on the Russian Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast on Aug. 18, it is plausible that Russia’s strategic aviation aircraft incurred damage. Images geolocated and released on Aug. 19 show smoke emanating from the Soltsy airbase. Russian Defense Ministry sources and other Russian outlets reported that a Ukrainian drone was downed, and that fire potentially affected a single aircraft.
An undisclosed Russian source contradicted this account, asserting that the strike harmed at least two aircraft. The source revealed that undisclosed numbers of supersonic long-range Tu-22M3 bombers, stationed at the Soltsy airbase, were also hit. The surviving aircraft were reportedly relocated to the Olenya airbase in Murmansk Oblast.
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Russian Tu-22m3 strategic bomber damaged in fiery drone attack on Russian air base — viral photos
A blaze burst out at Russia's Soltsy air base in Novgorod Oblast, where Russia bases its Tu-22m3 strategic bombers, used in attacks on Ukrainian cities, including those on Lviv, Lutsk, and Dnipro on Aug. 15, as seen in photos that went viral on social media on Aug. 19.
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The success of Russian stocks this year is partly due to the fact that Russia has frozen inflows and outflows of foreign assets, meaning those who invested in Russian stocks prior to the invasion of Ukraine haven't been able to cash out. It's a move that was intended to prop up Russia's stock market, the researchers said.
Gains are also attributable to Russia's ruble, which recently plummeted to its lowest level against the dollar since the start of the war — something that's also worked to prop up the stock market. That's because Russia mostly produces commodities that are sold using foreign currencies, Tian said. Higher-value currencies are flowing into the nation, which has helped artificially inflate profits and boost Russian stock levels.
"The stock market gains reflect less genuine wealth creation or foreign investment/confidence in Russian markets (which is non-existent) and more merely exchange rate effects," Tian said.
Beneath those inflated numbers, Russia is actually suffering from a huge loss of confidence in its economy – and it's the main reason why investment in the nation will probably continue to wither, even after war in Ukraine ends.
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