Russia has not reconstituted its tank and other mechanized units
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The absence of several elite and prominent WMD elements from the Luhansk Oblast line and elsewhere in theater suggests that the Russian military continues to face challenges in reconstituting combat units and specifically tank units. The WMD commands three army-level maneuver formations—the 6th and 20th Combined Arms Armies (CAA) and the 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA). The 20th CAA is heavily committed along the Svatove-Kreminna line, as noted above. ISW has only observed limited mentions of the 6th CAA and partial mentions of 1st GTA formations in Luhansk Oblast, however, and has not observed these elements anywhere else in theater, suggesting that some of these units and formations have likely not been reconstituted yet.[10] A delay in the reconstitution of tank units in particular could result from the fact that several critical (and previously elite) Russian tank units and mechanized formations have suffered devastating defeats over the course of the first year of the war. The 1st GTA, for example, suffered massive losses during its assault in Chernihiv Oblast early in the war and then once again in autumn of 2022 during Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast.[11] The 1st GTA’s 4th Tank Division, specifically its 12th and 13th Guards Tank Regiments, famously lost nearly 100 tanks (a full regiment’s worth) in a few days in September of 2022.[12]
Russian tank losses have been enormous in this war, amounting to the equivalent of around 16 tank regiments worth, which is likely hindering Russia’s ability to reconstitute its tank units rapidly. Recent intelligence estimates presented by Dutch open-source investigative organization Oryx and the British research institute International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) depict these losses clearly. Oryx verified over 1,000 distinct Russian tank losses and 500 captured tanks on February 9, which likely means that Russia has lost half of its pre-war tank fleet in the first year of the war.[13] IISS similarly noted on February 15 that Russia has lost about 50 percent of its pre-war number of T-72B and T-72B3M main battle tanks.[14] A single tank regiment requires just short of 100 tanks, so rebuilding two tank regiments from scratch (as the 12th and 13thTank Regiments likely required) would demand 200 tanks, which the Russian armed forces do not appear to have in usable stocks and do not appear able to produce quickly.[15] Widespread tank losses also impact the capacities of motorized rifle formations to function effectively, but motorized rifle units require fewer tanks in each and can make better use of the large amount of relatively untrained manpower the rushed Russian reserve mobilization has generated. The absence of reconstituted tank regiments and brigades, however, deprives the Russian ground forces of the kind of punch required to make and exploit operationally significant breakthroughs—which may explain why the WMD has so far failed to make any.
The pattern of Russian deployments in other parts of the theater strongly suggests that most of the available maneuver elements of the other military districts and the Airborne Forces are already committed and thus do not constitute a large reserve that Moscow could suddenly hurl into the fray in Luhansk Oblast or elsewhere....
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I suspect that the US and other NATO allies were cognizant of the weakness of the Russian tanks and provide the anti-tank weapons that Ukraine's forces exploited. The absence of significant replacements for tanks has led the Russians to engage in their human wave tactics which have resulted in huge losses of their troops many of which were inadequately trained to begin with.
See, also:
‘Lethal’ Chinese Gifts to Putin Could Spark ‘New Cold War’ With U.S.
China is now considering a new escalation against the West by delivering weapons and ammunition to Russia in its war against Ukraine—crossing a red line that could spark a “new Cold War,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed on taped Sunday morning news programs.
The claim, if true, would be a startling change that would squarely position China on Russia’s side, violating the U.S.-led international pressure campaign to isolate and punish Russian President Vladimir Putin for his expansionary military campaign.
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And:
Russians trying to break through Ukrainian defense line near Kreminna, Hayday says
"As of today, the toughest situation is in the area of Kreminna,” Hayday said. “There, there’s the highest number of shelling and attacks in order to break through our defenses. The area of Svatovo is very active, too. However, our positions there are more stable and we hit battle vehicles there every day. Recently, our guys burnt out three of the enemy's infantry fighting vehicles there," the governor said.
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And:
The first phase of Putin’s war is over – now the West needs a new strategy
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A war of attrition is very expensive, and Ukraine was hardly a rich country to start with. It is going to need plenty of financial assistance; massively increased trade with the rest of Europe through opening up our markets; and lots of investment in the bulk of the country not caught up in the fighting.
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And:
Russia loses over 1,000 soldiers in Ukraine over the past day — General Staff
And:
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As Friday’s anniversary of the invasion approaches, Russia’s military has suffered setback after setback, falling far short of its goal of taking control of Ukraine. But at home, facing little resistance, Putin’s year of war has allowed him to go further than many thought possible in reshaping Russia in his image.
“Liberalism in Russia is dead forever, thank God,” Konstantin Malofeyev, an ultraconservative business tycoon, bragged in a phone interview on Saturday. “The longer this war lasts, the more Russian society is cleansing itself from liberalism and the Western poison.”
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And:
Russia tries to undermine Bidens visit to Europe with nuclear blackmail
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