The Chicoms role in Ukraine war

 ISW:

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Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, possibly to assist Russia and China in sanctions evasion amidst reports that China is seriously considering sending Russia lethal aid. Lukashenko announced plans to visit China from February 28 to March 2 and to meet with Xi Jinping likely to sign agreements on trade, investment, large-scale joint projects, and other matters.[3] Lukashenko also plans to meet with top Chinese officials and the heads of Chinese corporations.[4] Lukashenko’s announcement of his planned visit coincides with reporting from CNN and The Washington Post that senior US officials assess that China is seriously considering selling combat drones, personal weapons, and 122mm and 152mm artillery shells to Russia.[5] Russian and Chinese officials have also reportedly developed plans for the shipment of drones to Russia under falsified shipping documents to avoid international sanctions measures.[6] China may seek to use agreements with Belarus to obfuscate violations of sanctions.

US President Joe Biden rejected China’s 12-point peace plan as Russian sources continue to capitalize on the announcement of the plan to vilify the West and Ukraine. Biden stated that the Chinese peace plan is only beneficial for Russia and that it would make no sense for China to participate in negotiations on the war in Ukraine.[7] Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) head Denis Pushilin argued that China’s peace plan is a fundamentally different approach to the war in Ukraine from the West’s as the West demands the fulfillment of preconditions while exacerbating the conflict through supporting Ukraine.[8] Pushilin nevertheless also rejected the Chinese plan because it would prevent Russia from achieving its maximalist goals in Ukraine.[9] Russian officials and propagandists continue to assert that Western aid that helps Ukraine resist Russia’s illegal invasion protracts the war and to ignore the role that Russia’s determined pursuit of its maximalist aims plays in prolonging the conflict.
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Other reports indicate that Russia is running out of Iranian suicide drones so it makes sense that Russia would want to buy Chinese drones.  If China were to use Belarus as the purchaser of the drones, it is likely that the West would further retaliate against Belarus for sanction violations.  It does appear at this point that there is little support for the Chicom "peace plan" in the West or Ukraine and minimal support within Russia.

See, also:

 Russia likely out of Iranian-made drones British Intelligence

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Quote: "This lack of OWA-UAV deployments likely indicates that Russia has run down its current stock. Russia will likely seek a resupply," the report says.

Although the weapons do not have a good record in destroying their intended targets, Russia likely sees them as useful decoys, which can divert Ukrainian air defences from more effective Russian cruise missiles.
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And:

 Ukrainian defenders repel 70 Russian attacks, destroy Mi-24 helicopter

 On Feb. 24, the Ukrainian military destroyed one Mi-24 attack helicopter and four enemy UAVs: one Orlan-10, one Zala, and two Lancet-3 strike drones.

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And:

 British long-range missiles 'could help Ukraine disrupt Russian navy'

British long-range missiles would give Ukraine the ability to disrupt Russian logistical chains and push its naval forces more than 80 miles from the coast, say analysts.
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Ukraine has been gifted US-made Himars and M270 multi-launch rocket systems with a range of 50 miles.

Kyiv’s armed forces have used them to superb effect to force Russian logistics away from the frontline, making it harder for Moscow to supply any advances.

But Mr Zelensky has made the delivery of longer-range weapons a priority in order to hit targets even deeper behind enemy lines as part of his conversations with Western leaders.

Storm Shadow, the RAF’s long-range cruise missile, would deliver that desired effect.

The weapon costs about £2.2 million and can be fired from a fighter jet at targets as far as 350 miles away, although they can be modified to have significantly shorter range.
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And:

Putin will eventually be killed by inner circle, says Zelensky

And:

 How American energy helped Europe best Putin

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U.S. companies provided 50 percent of Europe’s liquefied natural gas supplies in 2022, along with 12 percent of its oil. Russian oil and gas shipments to the continent have shriveled by half, beset by boycotts, sanctions and an EU price cap. Global oil and gas trade routes have been redrawn and renewable energy development has received a massive financial and political shot in the arm.

The turnabout has put a new spotlight on the United States’ role as the world’s biggest energy producer, whose foothold in Asia has also strengthened in the past year. At the same time, the EU and the Biden administration are working more closely together to develop the next generation of clean energy — one that doesn’t include Russia — a transition that will lean heavily on U.S. fossil fuel in the coming few years.

“Europe’s energy divorce from Russia is nearly complete,” said Andrew Lipow, president of oil industry and market consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates. “We’re seeing a permanent change as far as how Europe gets its energy in the future. One result is the United States and European energy policy are going to be more closely intertwined.”

Europe’s reaction against its largest energy supplier’s attempt to remake the map has sent shockwaves through global markets. These were felt most acutely on the continent, where electricity and natural gas prices surged as much as 15-fold, prompting governments to spend more than $800 billion to ease consumers’ financial burdens.
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Biden's initial energy policy made Europe more dependent on Russia and along with his Afghan bug-out likely made Putin think he had a stronger hand in dealing with Europe.  The Trump energy policy strengthened the US energy role and Trump also sought to ween Europe off of Russian energy. His policy made more strategic sense and could have made Putin rethink his attack on Ukraine. Instead of continuing to increase US energy production, Biden has restricted drilling on US control sites and has relied more on stripping the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to reduce prices at the pump.  Europe and the US would have been better off under the Trump energy policy.

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