Medvedev pushes Russian unrealistic goals in Ukraine
The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has failed to achieve any of its stated objectives and has not made significant territorial gains since July 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his administration made no statements relating to the anniversary even though Putin has made numerous public appearances over the past three days.[1] Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev made inflammatory claims that Russia will win the war and reiterated that it is vital for Russia to achieve its goals to "push back the borders that threaten [Russia] as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland."[2] ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin has been using Medvedev to sustain information campaigns targeting Western military support for Ukraine and to deflect attention from Russia's military failures.[3] Medvedev's statements highlight the fact that the Kremlin is continuing to pursue its unrealistic maximalist goals even though it has no meaningful successes to offer the Russian people after a year of costly war in Ukraine.
Select Russian milbloggers commented on the Kremlin's silence on the first anniversary of the war. Russian former officer and an avid Kremlin critic Igor Girkin criticized Medvedev's statements as delusional and lamented the fact that no one remembers the severe losses Russian airborne troops suffered during the fight for Hostomel Airfield near Kyiv on February 24, 2022.[4] Girkin claimed that he had long been forecasting that Russia had embarked upon a protracted and exhausting war. He noted that it is very difficult to defeat a state that receives external support using Russia's unmotivated forces, absent civil society, and strong brainwashing.[5] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger attempted to downplay Russia's military failures expressing thanks that the war revealed shortcomings but distress at the high price paid in Russian blood.[6] The milblogger also amplified the Kremlin's false narrative that the war was necessary to stop supposed Ukrainian "aggression" in Donbas. The milblogger's statements closely mirror comments made by unnamed Kremlin-affiliated officials to Financial Times who noted that Putin will try to frame Russia's catastrophic military failures as a necessary learning experience that Russia will use to prepare for future supposed NATO aggression against Russia that Putin purportedly fears.[7]
...
Both Putin and Medeved appear delusional about Russian war efforts and prospects. If they think this has been a learning experience it does not appear they have learned much from their failures and unrealistic objectives. The longer the war goes on the less it appears that the Russian leadership has learned.
See, also:
Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders
And:
Russian troops advance on five directions, Ukrainian army repels about 100 attacks
And:
The grim realities of Russia’s war in Ukraine — tens of thousands dead, international isolation and a declining quality of life — are not part of the alternate reality of nationalist fervor created by the Kremlin’s propaganda machine.
But the future of Russia is bleak, experts told The Hill on the anniversary of the war, with Russian President Vladimir Putin showing no signs of letting up and the Russian people facing rising uncertainty over how it will end.
“Certainly Putin … he basically threw his country back decades,” said Anna Vassilieva, director of the Monterey Initiative in Russian Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.
“I always say we’ll have that blood on our faces for generations now, because of what he did. And that’s a terrible burden — we are lucky if there’s no nuclear war.”
Putin has so far weathered military defeats and has maintained a stranglehold on the minds of his people — even as his war is increasing the threat of nuclear weapons use to its most dangerous point since the Cold War, and his military commits atrocities of murder, rape and torture.
...
And:
Russia shot down several of its own aircraft in the initial days of the invasion of Ukraine, resulting in a dearth of willing pilots needed for Moscow to achieve air superiority, The Financial Times reported.
...
"They may not have had pilots with combat experience who were willing to fly over Ukraine and risk their necks in that crazy environment," the official added, per the FT.
Ukrainian forces on the battlefield also witnessed Russians downing Moscow's own helicopters and planes, according to Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, who spoke to the outlet.
Kyiv's intelligence units intercepted Russian communications saying the same, he said, per the FT.
"It happened. From artillery units, from tanks, and we even saw it from our intercepts of their conversations," he said.
...
And:
Russia has shown its hand at sea. We must rebuild our creaking navy
...
The war in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov doesn’t look anything like the battle of Jutland, with titanic warships locked in combat. Much of it doesn’t have anything to do with direct maritime combat at all, instead focusing on denying the use of sea lanes.
In oceanic terms, this is a small area. But it is flanked by both combatants, and from a Ukrainian perspective it’s the point of transit for 90% of the country’s exports, from wheat and corn through to steel and fertilisers. Russia’s maritime blockade is having a crippling impact on the Ukrainian economy, and starving the countries which depended on its exports of grain.
Meanwhile, in the Baltic Sea, public debate is still focusing on who was responsible for the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline. Regardless of responsibility, the action shows the range of options someone with mastery of the maritime environment has at its disposal – and the threat posed to the UK’s national interests by Moscow, now and in the future.
...
The British navy is a shadow of its former self.
Comments
Post a Comment