Carson now leads Trump by 8 in Iowa

Washington Times:
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has overtaken billionaire businessman Donald Trump in Iowa, according to a poll released Thursday on the 2016 GOP presidential field.

Mr. Carson led Mr. Trump by 8 points, 28 percent to 20 percent, in the Quinnipiac poll released Thursday. In September, Mr. Trump held a 6-point, 27 percent to 21 percent, lead over Mr. Carson in the state.

“It’s Ben Carson’s turn in the spotlight,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Mr. Trump had not trailed in an Iowa poll included in RealClearPolitics averages since an NBC News/Marist poll released in July that showed him narrowly trailing Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who has since dropped out of the race. Mr. Trump and Mr. Carson were tied at 23 percent apiece in a Monmouth poll taken in late August.

Mr. Carson held a 20-point advantage over Mr. Trump among women, 33 percent to 13 percent, and a 1-point advantage among men, 25 percent to 24 percent. He also had a 19-point, 36 percent to 17 percent advantage over Mr. Trump among white evangelical Christians.

“Those who know Carson seem to like him,” Mr. Brown said. “He has an almost unheard of 84-10 percent favorability rating among likely Republican Caucus-goers, compared to Trump’s 53-43 percent rating. To borrow the line from Madison Avenue, ‘Almost no one doesn’t like Ben Carson.’ “

Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida was in third in the poll at 13 percent, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 10 percent and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 6 percent. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush were next at 5 percent each. No one else was above 3 percent.
...
 Carson does convey a genuineness that probably appeals to the conservative Christians in Iowa.  He has probably also been greatly helped by the media hostility to some of the things he has said about the incompatibility of Sharia law with the US constitution.  I think his low key style is probably also appealing to Iowa voters.  Rubio and Cruz have also become top tier candidates in recent polls.

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