Voters believe GOP will win in 2014

NY Times:

Voters Expect Republican Wins, in Kansas and Elsewhere


Historically, polls that ask whom voters expect to win have offered a better preview of election results than those that ask whom they want to win.
One reason this is so revolves around pollsters attempt to develop models of who will turnout.  Do they use the 2010 model or the 2012 model.  In 2012 the Obama administration suppressed much of the Tea Party vote by using the IRS and other government agencies to tamp down their efforts and at the same time it was able to get a big turnout in the minority communities.  This year polling suggest a lack of enthusiasm in the minority community and an amped up Tea Party vote.  I think that is why voters expect the GOP to win.

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