The Palin tour buzz
Image by Getty Images via @daylifeWith one announcement, the slow burning - some might say barely-smouldering - Republican campaign for the White House has, if not caught light, then at least caught the attention of those outside the circle of Washington's campaign professionals.It is going to be very difficult for Obama to match his previous money raising total which came in mainly small donations from people who are unlikely to donate at all this time.
That announcement was from Sarah Palin's Political Action Committee; the former vice-presidential candidate would, the PAC said, begin a tour of north-eastern states, visiting historic sites and patriotic events.
The aim of the "One Nation tour", she said on her website, will be "to connect with our founders….to clearly see our way forward".
Until this point, most of the noise in the Republican camp had been made by those saying they aren't going to stand - three former and present state governors have ruled themselves out, as did the extrovert property developer and television star Donald Trump.
Seasoned campaign watchers are surprisingly united on why they think so many have ruled themselves out of the 2012 race for the White House.
It is, many say, because potential candidates cannot face the sheer grinding ghastliness of the campaign.
"I think in America," says Rich Galen, a former Republican campaigner, "we have successfully dumbed down the process so that good people don't want to put themselves through this anymore."
He's not just referring to the long months of cheap hotels, bad food, begging for campaign funds and forensic scrutiny from opponents and the media.
There's also the loss of income - candidates cannot use campaign funds for personal use - and the impact upon family.
"Good people over time decide 'you know what? I don't need this, my family doesn't need this, the country will do just fine and I'll go out and make some money.'"
Continue reading the main story
“Start Quote
Presidents get the credit for good times, whether they actually produce them, and they get the blame for bad times”
Professor Larry Sabato University of Virginia
When the BBC spoke to Sarah Palin a couple of months ago about what might sway her decision as to whether she might run, the first thing she mentioned was the current occupant of the White House.
"Well, understanding that Obama has already said that he's going to rake in and spend a billion dollars in this race, money is certainly going to be a consideration."
...
(Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, says) "But in the 30% of the time that the incumbent loses, it is because he is held accountable for what has happened on his watch.
"Presidents get the credit for good times, whether they actually produce them, and they get the blame for bad times, whether they are responsible or not."
So all the money and all the fine speeches may not be enough if President Obama is faced with a decent opponent, because America is still hurting - unemployment is still around 9%, wages are stagnating, economic insecurity is high.
There is, says Republican pollster Whit Ayres, a deep sense of unease.
"Two thirds of the people in the country think we are going in the wrong direction.
"It is," he says, picking his words carefully, "a challenge for an incumbent president to get re-elected when two thirds of the people in the country think that we are going the wrong way, we are off on the wrong track and things are not going well.
...
He has alienated the big money guys on Wall Street as well as many other bankers with his heavy handed regulation and blaming them for things the government was responsible for.
He has also alienated Jewish donors who in the past have been big donors for Democrats.
Even the labor unions who have gotten more from Obama than any recent President are balking this time around.
He has already been on several fund raisers and the totals do not match the effort.
His policies on energy, the economy and foreign affairs have made him very beatable.
Comments
Post a Comment