The proposed immigration bill has hurtles for politicians before hurtles for immigrants

While many conservatives have been bemoaning the compromise comprehensive immigration reform bill, it appears to be far from a done deal with opposition coming from liberal and conservative groups which suggest not many people are happy with it.

The NY Times reports:

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But the politics of the deal are precarious. Democrats are already trying to tamp down concerns of Hispanic groups, who fear that the bill would make it more difficult for immigrants to bring relatives from abroad. At the same time, Republican negotiators face blistering criticism from some conservatives, who say the bill would grant a virtual amnesty to people who had broken the law.

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The Washington Times also reflected doubt on whether the compromise would be accepted:

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"This is the best I think that can be done with an enormous effort on a bipartisan basis," said Sen. Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania Republican and one of the top negotiators.
Whether it is enough to win on the Senate floor next week is in doubt. Support seemed to crumble even as the deal was announced.
Conservative Republicans argued that the bill rewards illegal activity, while liberal Democrats said it is too draconian toward illegal aliens and too restrictive for future workers.
The plan, which was still being finalized, allows the estimated 12 million to 20 million illegal aliens in the United States to come forward and receive probationary status. Meanwhile, the government would continue to build fencing and vehicle barriers on the Mexico border, hire more immigration officers and institute better checks on employers.
Once the security improvements are complete, aliens on probation could apply for a proposed Z visa, putting them on the path to citizenship. They would have to return home at some point to apply for the intermediate step of obtaining a green card.

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The politics of the bill have already impacted the Presidential campaign. Most of the leading Republican candidates have rejected the bill, with the notable exception of John McCain. With the furor in the conservative blogs over the compromise, his support for the compromise would be costly for his presidential ambitions. Many conservatives appear to prefer the status quo. I think this is mainly because of the "path to citizenship" portion of the bill. At this time, it is hard to say how many of the approximately 12 million people here illegally would sign up as required by the law. The assumption on all sides is that all would, but I am not sure. The background checks that follow signing up, would mean the immediate deportation of those with criminal records, which means criminal aliens and absconders are unlikely to sign up.

There will be a lot of analysis on this compromise, when the drafting is completed. I think the assumption of inevitability may be premature.

If the voters of Farmer's Branch, Texas are an indication of the public mood on immigration the conservatives are likely to make politicians pay for a bill that goes too easy on those who are illegally in this country.

Business Week chronicles the opposition from both sides. Rich Lowry says it is a rotten deal.