Mokie's back in Iraq

NY Times:

The powerful Iraqi cleric Moktada al- Sadr has quietly returned to southern Iraq after a four-month sojourn in Iran, according to American intelligence reports.

The cleric left for Iran after the Bush administration announced its new security push in January, and his militia immediately went underground, in an apparent effort to outwait the Americans and avoid a head-on clash. Now, the development has the potential to profoundly influence politics and the security situation in Iraq, though American officials acknowledge that the political motivations for Mr. Sadr’s return and even the duration of his stay in Iraq remain unclear.

The prevailing view among American officials familiar with the intelligence reports is that Mr. Sadr’s aim at a minimum is to raise his political profile in Iraq and possibly strengthen his position in anticipation that provincial elections may be held next year. There have also been reports that his militia has been splintering during his absence, and he may also be trying to reinforce his influence over his supporters.

Some Americans also suggest that he may be trying to take advantage of the absence of one of his main Shiite rivals, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who has come to the United States for medical treatment. Mr. Hakim’s organization, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, has been vying for influence among Shiites with Mr. Sadr’s organization.

The broader question is whether Mr. Sadr plans to step up his oratory against the American-led coalition and try to mobilize pressure for an American withdrawal or seek a new political accommodation.

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His oratory has been going the other way recently with him making noise about reconciliation and having his people even meeting with representatives of the Anbar Sunni tribes that have been fighting al Qaeda. With his militia falling apart he will have to rely on playing well with others for a while. He probably lost standing by bugging out for four months.

Bill Roggio looks at Mookie's latest speech where he sounds like he agrees witht eh Democrats on the war.