Guradian:
An extraordinary sense of foreboding has developed among Syria-watchers over the last few days - a feeling that momentous events are just around the corner. Some even suggest the regime of the president, Bashar al-Assad, could fall within a matter of months.There is much more with the names of potential Syrian defendents as well as speculation on whether the regime of the Damacus entity will survive.The reason for this is the unfolding drama in Lebanon that surrounds the UN investigation into the murder of the former prime minister Rafik Hariri.
It is now almost beyond doubt that by the time the chief investigator, Detlev Mehlis, completes his work next month, he will have direct evidence that the assassination was orchestrated from Damascus. If so, the killing of Hariri will probably count as one of the most disastrous own goals in the history of international politics.
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Amid mounting evidence of a Syrian connection, the question is: where in Syria could the order to assassinate Hariri have come from?
If normal procedures were followed, Rustom Ghazaleh, the former head of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon, would probably have delivered it to the Lebanese generals. It is very unlikely, however, that Ghazaleh would have given the order off his own bat: in Syria decisions of that nature have to come from the top - which, in practice, means the inner circle around the president.
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Last week the president's brother-in-law, Asef Shawkat, was in Paris, apparently trying to negotiate a deal. The general idea seems to be that in exchange for letting Maher off and keeping the regime intact, Damascus would offer greater cooperation on controlling the border with Iraq and perhaps make further sacrifices of Syrian interests in Lebanon.
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