Strategy Page:
...The no raids policy is a mistake. Announcing it is a mistake. Creating sanctuaries for terrorist is a mistake.
Al Qaeda believes, really believes, that the suicide bombings and murder of Iraqis who disagree with them will work because the al Qaeda zealots are doing God's Will. Some al Qaeda members have other, more dangerous ideas about subverting democratically elected governments. But these free thinkers are considered deluded and borderline blasphemers. Al Qaeda is all about being holier than thou, and there is nothing more devout that martyring oneself for the cause. This, of course, limits ones usefulness to the organization. As a result, the al Qaeda leadership goes through a lot of turnover and makes it difficult for the organization to grow in experience and effectiveness. This is being seen rather vividly in Iraq.
Now that there's an Iraqi government in charge, and Iraqi ministers running all departments, changes are occurring. The government has banned raids on mosques. The United States stayed away from mosques for about a year, but then began raiding them when it became obvious that gunmen and terrorists had taken over the mosque compounds as headquarters because they knew they were safe. American troops used Iraqi police or soldiers to make many of the raids, and in the last year, Iraqi police commandoes have made many mosque raids on their own. As a result of all this, terrorists don't use mosques as much as they used to. Thus the gesture, towards devout Sunni Arabs, to stop the raids. The government believes that instead, mosques used by terrorists can be shut down and mosque administrators arrested. Unlike Americans, the Iraqis are quick to arrest family members of people they are looking for. This usually forces the suspects to turn themselves in. If the "no-raids" policy does not work, the raids will be resumed. The government didn't say that. They didn't have to' Everyone understood it.
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