Should Republicans go ahead and add Supreme Court Justices to head off Democrats

A battle of crowds and cameras

Austin Bay:

For the moment, the struggle in Lebanon remains a battle of crowds and cameras -- and it's a battle pro-democracy demonstrators are winning.

But Western diplomats and their new allies in Free Iraq know a bloodless democratic victory is no certainty. Syria and Iran fear democracy and peace, and their Lebanese stalking horse, Hezbollah, has guns and loyal fighters.

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The pro-democracy demonstrators have the edge in numbers and media sizzle -- they dominate the camera war. Virtually every news magazine and Web site features a raven-haired Levantine beauty demanding democracy and a Syrian military pull-out. The pro-Syrian marches seem pitifully dated -- angry, mustachioed men, assault rifles, chants of "Death to America." Hezbollah's and Syria's media advisers don't realize that the Palestinian and Iraqi elections finally exposed the "myth of the Arab Street" as utter fascist pulp. After the Iraqi elections the chest-pounding thug act doesn't scare people anymore. We know the real Arab Street would rather head for the Honda dealership.

The March 15 anti-U.S. demonstration at the American Embassy in Beirut -- a desperate attempt by Syria to paint the United States as the occupier -- completely flopped. Everyone knows Syria has 14,000 troops in Lebanon. Everyone knows Damascus claims Lebanon as part of Greater Syria. A passel of folks know Syrian strategists also see their Lebanese occupation as a bargaining chip with Israel -- i.e., the Israelis pull back from the Golan Heights and Syria leaves Lebanon.

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Deterring Iranian meddling is the more complex trick. Saddled with a failed, repugnant revolution and disenchantment at home, Iran's theocrat dictators buy time with terror. Seeding regional turmoil and war via Lebanon's Hezbollah gives Iran leverage in Lebanon, Palestine and Syria. To lose Hezbollah reveals the mullahs' increasing weakness.

For this reason, gunfire between armed factions remains a very real possibility -- Iran and Syria benefit if the democratic surge is blunted and Lebanon spirals into factional war.

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Iran and Syria only offer tyranny and war. The United States is betting Lebanon's Shias appreciate the Iraqi Shias' electoral boon and the economic benefits of peace. Iraq's "new Shia model" is another payoff in the war on terror.

Hezballah right now is a very different breed of Shia than the Iraqi model. Hezballah is a terrorist organization, whereas Iraqi Shia are and have been the victims of terrorism perpetrated by the Sunnis and by al Qaeda. The Shia in Iran have always been on the side of the terrorist. This leads to the conclusion that Hezballah must be destroyed in much the same way al Qaeda must be destroyed.