The ferry theory

NY Times:

It takes a fraction of a second for an explosion to rip open a hole below the waterline of a ferry carrying hundreds of passengers. In the next instant, a deck tears off and the blast bellows inside the hull, causing structural beams to give way.

A terrorist strike is playing out with disastrous consequences. But so far, at least, the plot is confined to a desktop computer at the Coast Guard headquarters here.

To improve security on the nation's commuter ferries, the Coast Guard has been trying to answer some critical questions: How much explosive force would be needed to sink a big ferry? Which screening methods are most effective? How many vehicles and passengers should be screened to create a deterrent?

"In terms of the probability of something happening, the likelihood of it succeeding and the consequences of if it occurring, ferries come out at the very high end," said Joseph J. Myers, a Coast Guard risk analyst.

As some one who enjoys riding ferries for sight seeing, I have been on several. The ferry out of Portland Maine, that goes by the "Calendar Islands" up to Nova Scotia is delightful. Also the ferry from San Francisco to Saulsilito is another terrific sight, as is the ferry from around Seattle up to the Canadian islands. Even the ferry from Galveston to Boliver is interesting.

However, none of these ferries strike me as attractive targets for al Qeada. While they may be able to kill a few people, a ferry just does not give them the bang for the buck they are looking for. None would be confused with the USS Cole. Nor could any of them be used to attack some other icon of Americana. If for some strange reason terrorist decide to hit them, I am glad the Coast Guard is getting ready. The story does mention that a 1,050 passenger ferry in the Phillipines was sunk using an eight pound charge hidden in a television. Still 115 died in the attack, which does not strike me as a satisfactory kill ratio for bin Laden.

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