Insurgent's exit strategy

Austin Bay:

The Internet is suddenly rife with reports that Iraq’s pro-Saddam holdouts seek an “exit strategy” – a deal to put down their arms, enter the political system, and not go to jail. (Link is to the Financial Times article: “Iraq’s insurgents ‘seek exit strategy’ “.)

From July 2004 forward part of Iyad Allawi’s plan was to “add not subtract” Iraqis. The Interim Iraqi Government wanted to bring Sunni Triangle holdouts into the political process. The door to was open to discussion with all but the most senior members of the Baath leadership. The IIG insisted, however, that murderers wouldn’t go unpunished—which admittedly adds an uncomfortable rub.

The holdouts have always had two hole cards. The first is agreeing to quit fighting. This meant submitting to the democratic judicial process, but turning in your arms and asking for amnesty would lay the groundwork for a “deal with the prosecutor.”

The second card is turning in Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the Al Qaeda internationalists..Fact is, turning in Zarqawi would be the Baghdad equivalent of Monopoly’s “Get Out of Jail Free Card” for the lower-level holdouts who engineer it.

The Saddamites who turn in Zarqawi would give the Iraqi government a tactical military victory –the terrorist kingpin is off the streets– and a major political victory. Sunni Muslims turning in the Islamist terrorist would be another strategic coup for the United States.

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