Terrorism futures

Fortune

"While the Pentagon program may sound outlandish, there is strong evidence that futures exchanges can predict events better than other forms of analysis. Betting pools on election results have proven more accurate than polls, and options markets are better predictors of future stock prices than the price targets set by individual equity research analysts. The reason, economists say, is that markets are extremely efficient at aggregating information from all investors—including inside information."

The idea came from a group headed by John Poindexter, the formaer National Security Advisor in the Reagan Administration who was forced to resign after the Iran Contra issue got too hot. His presence probably caused the Dems visceral reaction to the program. The Democrat senators are the ones who need to rethink their position and quite acting in a knee jerk fassion because of the source of the idea.

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