US economy beats expectations
Many so-called experts predicted that President Trump’s economic agenda would usher in an inflationary Armageddon. This projection was so often repeated in the media that many Americans, especially Democrats, believed a depression was imminent. Yet the economy is thoroughly beating expectations and consumers’ expectations are becoming increasingly optimistic.
Upon taking office again, Mr. Trump reiterated the economic policy goals that he laid out during the campaign: reductions in excessive taxation, burdensome regulations, and government spending, coupled with increases in tariffs and energy production.
This was labeled as some kind of toxic mixture. Thus far, though, it’s been an elixir for the American economy, which was suffering from inflation and a general malaise.
Consider that when Mr. Trump took office in January, inflation (as measured by the consumer price index) was running at an annualized rate of 5.7%, at which pace prices double in less than 13 years. With Mr. Trump back at the helm, however, inflation has averaged an annualized rate of just 1.4%.
The lower inflation means people’s income isn’t being so quickly eroded by lost purchasing power. Under President Biden, the average American’s weekly paycheck grew almost 20% but they bought 4% less because inflation so outpaced wage growth. Conversely, under Mr. Trump, the average weekly paycheck buys 1% more today than when he was inaugurated in January.
This is precisely the opposite of what many analysts and so-called experts predicted would happen. Of course, the same folks who said Mr. Trump’s tariffs would cause runaway inflation also said Mr. Biden’s profligate spending wouldn’t cause inflation. They’re perpetually wrong, but never in doubt.
Simultaneously, the labor market is quickly transitioning off its dependence on government and back to the productive private sector. During Mr. Biden’s tenure, job growth was disproportionately the result of increasing government payrolls and burgeoning bureaucracy—a completely unsustainable, and expensive, pattern.
But what a difference a president makes. Every month of 2025 has seen a reduction in the federal workforce as the Trump administration takes steps to make the government more efficient. Far from crashing the labor market, these public-sector layoffs have coincided with the private economy adding many more jobs than expected this year.
This good news probably comes as a shock to the average American consumer, and certainly to the average Democrat, who earlier this year thought Mr. Trump would usher in America’s Dark Ages. A variety of consumer surveys beginning in January showed many people souring on the economy, particularly their economic outlook for the year ahead.
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Biden's reckless spending caused significant inflation. Trump has reduced spending, and inflation has decreased. Who knew that increased government spending was causing inflation? Will Democrats finally get the message?
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