Drone wars coming to China
Ukraine’s 18-foot, explosives-laden drone boats have wreaked havoc on the Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, ramming and sinking three large warships: two patrol boats and an amphibious landing vessel.
It would seem that Taiwan has taken the lesson on board. Now so-called “unmanned surface vessels,” or USVs, are set to become a core element of Taiwan’s strategy for defeating China.
It’s clear, however, that the Taiwanese military will need a lot more drones than it apparently is planning for – and advanced tactics for deploying them.
The Ukrainian navy developed its USVs in the first year after Russia widened its war on Ukraine starting in February 2022. The first drones – or “Sea Babies,” as the Ukrainians have nicknamed them – were little more than commercial speedboats with GPS navigation, a satellite radio connection, day and night cameras and a nose full of explosives.
Steered via satellite by a human controller potentially hundreds of miles away, the USVs mostly hunt by night, and in packs. The Sea Baby raid targeting the Russian patrol boat Sergei Kotov – off Feodosiya in occupied Crimea on March 5 – seems to be typical of the robotic assaults.
Under the cover of darkness, perhaps half a dozen drones swarmed Sergei Kotov at her anchorage. The Russian crew spotted some of the Sea Babies speeding in from astern of their vessel, and opened fire.
But according to one analysis of a video depicting the attack, a second pack of drones USVs took advantage of the Russian gunners’ distraction and attacked from the unprotected opposite side.
These flanking drones didn’t actually strike Sergei Kotov, it seems. Rather, they herded the Russian vessel into open water just outside Feodosiya. There, another pack of Sea Babies lay in wait. It’s that group of drones that apparently hit and sank the Russian vessel.
Clearly impressed by the Ukrainian USVs’ effectiveness, Taiwanese officials signaled to Taipei Times earlier this month that they would acquire 200 drone boats for the Taiwanese army as well as an unspecified number of the drones for the navy. The Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology will begin mass production of the USVs in 2026, the newspaper reported.
That swarms of USVs can defeat manned warships isn’t in doubt. But scale is a factor. The Ukrainian navy has built potentially hundreds of USVs and deployed them to sink, so far, just three of the Black Sea Fleet’s dozens of large warships.
The Chinese navy could muster hundreds of big ships for an invasion of Taiwan. While other Taiwanese and allied forces – submarines, fighter squadrons and ground-based missiles – could contribute to a defensive campaign, it’s still apparent that hundreds of USVs isn’t nearly enough USVs to make much a difference in a naval campaign that could be an order of magnitude bigger and more violent than the current battle for the Black Sea.
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The impact of drones on warfare is just being revealed and is likely to grow bigger. The drones have the advantage of not exposing military personnel. I suspect the drone wars will involve naval and air-borne drones.
See also,
Ukraine finally found a way to make Russia suffer. The US seems to want it to stop.
Ukraine recently found a Russian weak spot — targeting its oil and gas industry in long-range missile and drone attacks.
The attacks have reduced Russia's oil processing capacity by 7%, Reuters reported, seriously impacting an industry Russia relies on heavily to fund its invasion of Ukraine.
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And:
The US Navy is in a desperate struggle against drone stealth fighters
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