People of color choosing red
Both parties warned for months of an imminent red wave among voters of color, forecasting that the GOP would build further on gains made in the 2020 presidential race. But while every racial group moved right this year, especially among men, the shift fell short of expectations.
And Democrats should be wary of declaring victory on this front and moving on, multiple strategists said, noting that any erosion among the party’s core constituencies should be taken seriously — and addressed with more planning and purpose ahead of the 2024 presidential race.
Terrance Woodbury, CEO of progressive research firm HIT Strategies, credited new voters from 2018 and 2020, as well as younger voters, for showing up for Democrats on Tuesday to buck the earlier projections.
“Our initial take is that while Democrats have stopped the bleeding among people of color, they haven’t reversed the trend,” he said.
Democrats won among Black, Hispanic and Asian and Pacific Islander voters in the 2022 midterms, while the majority of white voters and Native Americans went for Republicans, according to exit polls conducted by major networks and Edison Research.
But compared to the 2018 midterms, Hispanic and Asian support for the GOP jumped 10 and 17 points respectively, while Black voters shifted about 4 points to the right. When contrasted with 2020 — a presidential election year fueled by a push to remove former President Donald Trump from office — the movement in favor of Republicans is in the single digits.
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I suspect they were driven as much by what the Democrats were doing as by the GOP appeal. Democrats really hurt themselves with their response to the pandemic.
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