A red wave that went unnoticed

 Just the News:

The country may have experienced a red wave after all. It just didn't translate into the electoral outcomes that have historically accompanied major political shifts — and after the initial wave of instant narratives extemporized by pundits on election night, close observers are now just beginning to dig for the reasons underlying the model-shattering disconnect.

Republicans are currently winning the national popular vote for the House in Tuesday's midterm elections by a large margin, according to the latest data from the Cook Political Report.

Specifically, GOP candidates have so far received 50,672,592 votes, or 52.3% of the total ballots cast as of this writing. Democrat candidates, by comparison, have so far received 44,802,597 votes, or 46.2% of the total.

These figures come from Cook's 2022 National House Vote Tracker, which is being updated as states continue counting ballots.

This support for the GOP appears to fit with what pre-election polling data had suggested heading into Election Day. Several Republican candidates nationwide, including those running for the Senate and governors' mansions, had been rising in the polls in the last couple months, indicating positive momentum for Republicans.

Polling also found that the economy (particularly inflation) and crime were the top two issues for voters and that voters trusted Republicans more than Democrats to handle each issue.

President Biden's approval rating was also on average in the low 40s heading into Election Day, while other polling showed about 70%-80% of Americans thought the country was on the wrong track — both strong indicators historically that the party in control of the White House would lose a significant number of seats in the midterms.
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These results track the pre-election polling and maybe even better than most polls but the votes were not even across the states. Florida and Texas alone make up a significant portion of the difference.   Close races in blue states also impacted the results.

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