Russia continues to scramble for troops
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Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Vadym Skibitskyi stated that the Russian military can deploy an additional 300,000-350,000 personnel to Ukraine from units within Russia, Syria, Armenia, Tajikistan, Nagorno Karabakh, and Kazakhstan.[70] While Skibitsky’s statement may be technically correct in that Russia has over 300,000 personnel in uniform in these locations, the vast majority of these personnel are support personnel not employable in direct combat roles, are required to maintain permanent positions, and would not generate effective combat power. Some elements that Skibitsky mentioned—such as Russian elements in Syria and Nagorno Karabakh—reportedly already deployed to Ukraine several months ago, and these figures may be distorted. Russian authorities remain unlikely to generate substantial combat power for deployment into Ukraine.[71]
Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to recruit and deploy volunteer battalions to Ukraine. Russian daily newspaper Kommersant reported on September 2 that the Nizhny Novgorod-based “Kuzma Minin” tank battalion is deploying to Ukraine in pieces, a report consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that some volunteer battalions are deploying elements without their full complement.[72] Kommersant reported that the ”Kuzma Minin” tank battalion generated about 400 volunteers, a dramatic increase from a previous August 16 report stating that the unit only generated 30 out of 160 desired recruits.[73] It is unlikely the battalion’s recruitment rate dramatically increased by that margin in two weeks, and Nizhny Novgorod authorities may be intentionally inflating or misrepresenting recruitment numbers. The Russian-appointed governor of occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, stated on September 2 that over 1,200 Crimean volunteers are fighting in Ukraine, the first public Russian statement about Crimean volunteer soldiers.[74] It is unclear what formations these volunteer soldiers are fighting in. Aksyonov claimed that an additional 100 Crimeans will deploy to the frontlines in Ukraine by September 12.[75]
Russian force generation efforts are placing additional financial strain on Russian federal subjects. Russian Oryol City officials approved adjustments to the Oryol City budget to allocate 6.2 million rubles (approximately $103,000) to the “special military operations” in the “shortest time possible.”[76] The Oryol Oblast budget previously allocated only 2 million rubles (approximately $33,000) for the war.[77] Deputy Mayor of Oryol City Aleksei Stepanov stated that 41 Oryol residents have enlisted into the 3rd Army Corps after Oryol Oblast had previously introduced a one-time bonus of 100,000 rubles for those who enlist with the 3rd Army Corps, in addition to the standard enlistment bonus of 200,000 rubles.[78]
Russian officials continued mobilizing citizens from occupied territories into the Russian military.[79] Ukrainian sources in Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, posted images of summons calling Zaporizhzhia Oblast residents who received Russian passports to conscription centers.[80]
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Russia is also trying to replace equipment lost so far in the war with a small group of tanks seen headed toward the front. I suspect the donations of money from Russian cities are to please Putin even though the Russian government is still finding buyers for its oil and gas even though they are limiting the supply going to Europe.
What I find interesting about these recruitment attempts is that they appear inconsistent with the Russian narrative of how Ukraine's offensive is going. Ukraine is still quite about the status of its operations.
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