Losing Hispanic vote spells doom for Dems

 Washington Examiner:

Joe Biden won 65% of the Hispanic vote in the last presidential election. He campaigned on defending the working class and fixing the U.S. immigration system. Two years into his presidency, he has so far failed to do so, and Hispanic voters are increasingly deserting the Democratic Party. With the start of Hispanic Heritage Month, this Washington Examiner series, Taken For Granted, will look at how Biden and Democratic Party policies are failing to connect with the Latino electorate, how Donald Trump and Republicans have benefited, and how it could swing the November midterm elections.

Former President Donald Trump was supposed to be the death knell for the Republican Party and the Hispanic vote, helping to usher in the “emerging Democratic majority” forecasters had projected for decades.

Instead, Trump made modest inroads with Hispanics himself and may have presided over the demographic shifting from a reliably Democratic voting bloc to more of a swing vote.

If those trends hold through this year’s midterm elections, it could have lasting implications for the competitiveness of future races.

BIDEN AND DEMOCRATS LOSING GRIP ON HISPANIC VOTERS

In 2020, Trump won the highest share of the Hispanic vote of any Republican presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004. Like Ronald Reagan in 1984, incumbent GOP presidents seeking a second term have tended to do best with this bloc.

But Bush was reelected. Reagan won in a 49-state landslide, receiving 59% of the overall national popular vote. Trump improved to 35%, up 14 points from Mitt Romney in 2012, even as he lost the presidency.

Trump won 41% of the Hispanic vote in Texas and 46% in Florida, where he carried Cuban Americans. While the non-Hispanic white vote (62% for Trump in Florida, 66% in Texas) was decisive, this showing helped him keep both big states in the Republican column that November despite the Democrats’ best hopes.

That year, the Hispanic swing to the GOP was more dramatic in some key swing areas. Both South Texas and South Florida, for instance, saw double-digit increases in Republican support, including as much as 20 points in parts of Miami-Dade County and over 10 in the Rio Grande Valley.

“One important thing to know about the decline in Hispanic support for Democrats is that it was pretty broad,” top Democratic data guru David Shor told New York magazine after the election. “This isn’t just about Cubans in South Florida. It happened in New York and California and Arizona and Texas.”

Things could get even worse for Democrats in November. A Wall Street Journal poll earlier this year found the two parties tied among Hispanics in the generic ballot. The Democratic share of the Hispanic vote fell from more than 60% in 2020 to just 37%, with Republicans also taking 37%, while another 22% were undecided.

Fifty-four percent of Hispanics disapproved of the job Joe Biden was doing as president, compared to just 42% who approved. Among Hispanic men, disapproval stood at 61% compared to 38% approval.

...

Biden's open borders policy is also losing him support from Hispanics in Texas and Arizona.  They are living with the mess he created on a daily basis.   

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