Russia fails to mass its forces for Donbas attack?
ISW reports:
Russian forces continued offensive operations along multiple axes even as they completed moving reinforcements drawn from the retreat from Kyiv into the east and continued redeploying some forces from Mariupol to the north. The Russians have not taken time to refit troops moving from Kyiv or Mariupol before recommitting them to combat operations. They are not pausing offensive operations to wait until they have concentrated overwhelming combat power, and they do not appear to be massing forces on a few decisive axes of advance. They are continuing the pattern of operations they have followed throughout the war: committing small collections of units to widely dispersed attacks along multiple axes and refusing to accept necessary operational pauses to set conditions for decisive operations.
Russian forces have thus far only committed a handful of battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to offensive operations in their various sectors, however, and could still launch a massed offensive operation. We assess that such an operation is unlikely given observed patterns and the inherent limitations of available actual combat power in troops that have fought hard and suffered many casualties, as well as observed challenges with command-and-control at the regiment/brigade and division level. It is possible that the Russians are addressing or attempting to address some of those challenges and will soon launch an offensive in a new and better-coordinated form, but it remains unlikely.
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I get the impression that the Russians fear a lull will cause a loss of any momentum and thus they go forward with a half-assed approached in an effort to keep the pressure on the Ukraine government. The fact is that the Russian forces continue to lack the concentrated combat power for an effective offensive at this point. This suggests the troops and their commanders are not up to the task that Putin has in mind in their current state. The turnover and deaths of commanders of Russian units continue to be extraordinary.
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