Cook underestimates GOP advantage in 2022

 Jeffrey Anderson:

Voters appear poised to clobber the party that brought us COVID lockdowns, mask and vaccine mandates, and inflation. Indeed, rising inflation has largely resulted from COVID-related disincentives to work, disrupted supply chains, and blowout spending, along with federal restrictions on oil and gas production. It’s perhaps surprising, therefore, that the Cook Political Report foresees Republican gains in the House of Representatives as being only “in the 15-25 seat range,” while its projections suggest that Democrats have at least a coin flip’s chance of holding the Senate.

In a widely read piece, Cook’s Amy Walter grants that “both sides see the possibility of a Red Tsunami in 2022” and that “every metric we use . . . point[s] to huge gains for the GOP this fall.” Walter nevertheless remains skeptical that a big Republican wave will materialize, in part because “districts are more polarized than ever,” leaving fewer competitive seats on the board. Her skepticism, however, is also rooted in (and perhaps informs) which numbers she chooses to use in her analysis.

“In every midterm election since 2006,” Walter writes, “the party in the White House has seen its share of the two-party House vote (the popular vote for the House) drop by anywhere from 6.5 to 17 points from the previous presidential election.” She then projects the Democrats could see their share of the House vote drop by 6.6 points—essentially matching the low end of the historical range she cites—which she says could result in a net loss of 15 to 25 Democratic House seats.
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Over that same period, seven Republican candidates have run in Senate races that Cook said were “likely” Republican wins. Those Republicans have won by an average of 18.9 points—more than double the Democrats’ 9.1-point margin in such “likely”-win races. Among these seven Republicans, the smallest margin of victory was 10 points.

So, here’s how to decode the Cook Senate projections: If Cook says a race is a toss-up, give the Republican between a two-thirds and three-quarters chance of winning. If Cook says a race is a likely Democratic win or one that leans that party’s way (Democrats’ average margin of victory in races that “lean” Democratic was 8 points over the past four federal elections), expect that the Democrat will probably win pretty easily but recognize that he or she has a dark-horse chance of losing. If Cook says a race leans Republican, consider it pretty much a sure thing for the GOP. And if Cook says a race is a likely Republican win, consider it an outright lock and expect a GOP rout.

Using this handy decoder, Cook’s current projections suggest that—as most people assume—Republicans will likely take over the Senate. Odds are they will win three or four of the five “toss-up” races—those involving Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), and the open (GOP-held) seat in Pennsylvania—while easily winning the races that “lean” their way (Rubio and the open races in Ohio and North Carolina to fill GOP-held seats). That would be enough to give Republicans a Senate majority.

The “lean”-Democrat race involving Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) is also very much in play and might eventually find itself in Cook’s “toss-up” column (from which Republicans usually emerge victoriously). In addition, Bennet’s seat is a realistic long-shot possibility for the GOP. In all, the chances of the Democrats holding onto the Senate are lower than the chances of the Republicans ending up with at least 53 seats—and hence a Romney- and Murkowski-proof majority.

Party allegiance has shifted considerably over the past half-dozen years, and it’s still shifting. Yesterday’s freedom-loving hippie is today’s authoritarian scold (see: Young, Neil), as this political cartoon nicely depicts. The Wall Street Journal published a news story headlined, “School Mess Drives Parents to GOP,” and a subheadline reading, “Some Democratic voters, frustrated with party’s Covid policies, are backing Republicans.” The Democrats will almost surely pay a hefty price for their coercive mandates in November.

Most establishment pundits, however, still don’t recognize that voters granted Republicans control of the House in 1994 (for the first time in four decades) because they opposed Hillarycare, that voters backed Republicans and gave Democrats a “shellacking” (to use President Obama’s term) in 2010 because of Obamacare, and that voters mutinied against the establishments of both parties in 2016, largely over questions of immigration and trade but also because of general frustration with the disconnected ruling class. Those same establishment pundits aren’t likely to see the next wave coming—or even to recognize it after the fact.

With Biden approaching Nixon levels of disapproval in some demographic groups I suspect shellacking would be a better bet.  And the Democrat agenda in Congress has also been polling at disastrously low levels.  There was strong opposition to some of the measures they did pass that resulted in the worse inflation in 40 years making them even less popular.  There are also already 31 Democrats that have decided not to run for reelection. 

See, also:

Joe Biden Fiddles as Adviser Gives Brutally Honest Assessment of WH Midterm 'Messaging Strategy'

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 “There is as much a plan to win the midterms as there was to airlift Afghans out of Kabul,” said one Democratic political adviser who remains close to the White House. “They’re putting us all in a bad place.”

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