NATO's Russian problem

 Victor Davis Hanson:

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Americans publicly support NATO.

Yet most Americas privately worry that NATO has become diplomatically impotent and a military mirage — a modern League of Nations.

NATO members have a collective GDP seven times larger than Russia’s. Their aggregate population is 1 billion. Yet the majority will not spend enough on defense to deter their weaker enemies.

The second-largest NATO member, Turkey, is closer to Russia than to the United States. Its people poll anti-American.

Germany is NATO’s richest European member and the power behind the European Union. Yet Germany will soon be dependent on imported Russian natural gas for much of its energy needs.

In a recent Pew Research Center poll, 70 percent of Germans voiced a desire for more cooperation with Russia. Most Americans poll the exact opposite.

Worse, 60 percent of Germans oppose going to the aid of any NATO country in time of war. Over 70 percent of Germans term their relationship with the United States as “bad.”

We can translate all these disturbing results in the following manner: The German and Turkish people like or trust Russia more than they do their own NATO patron, America.

They would not support participating in any NATO joint military effort against even an invading Russia — even, or especially, if spearheaded by an unpopular United States.

So, assume that NATO’s key two members are either indifferent to the fate of nearby Ukraine or sympathetic to Russia’s professed grievances — or both.

Indeed, most Americans fear that if Ukraine ever became a NATO member, Putin might be even more eager to test its sovereignty.

Putin assumes that not all NATO members would intervene to help an attacked Ukraine, as required by their mutual defense obligations under Article 5.

If they did not, Putin could then both absorb Ukraine and unravel the NATO alliance all at once.
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Putin knows that the secretary of defense and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff appear more worried about “white privilege” and climate change than enhancing military readiness to deter enemies such as himself.

Putin sees polls that only 45 percent of Americans have confidence in their new politicized military.

The flight from Afghanistan, Putin further conjectures, has made the United States both less feared by enemies and less trusted by allies.

The prior failed American policy of Russian “reset,” the appeasement of Putin’s aggressions during the Obama years, together with the concocted hoax of “Russian collusion,” have all variously emboldened — and angered — Putin.

He knows a twice-impeached Donald Trump left office unpopular. So, he assumes with Trump gone, American deterrence against Russia also vanished.

Trump’s now rejected agenda was to increase American and NATO defenses, and pump oil and gas to crash the global price of Russia’s chief source of foreign exchange.

Putin was once furious that Trump unilaterally left an asymmetrical U.S.-Russia missile accord. Trump ordered lethal force to be used against large numbers of Russian mercenaries who attacked a U.S. installation in Syria. He sold offensive weapons to Ukraine. He acted forcibly in taking out terrorist enemies such as Iran’s General Qasem Soleimani, the Islamicist Abu al-Baghdadi, and ISIS itself.
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Biden and US military leadership look weak and in disarray after the Afghan bug-out fiasco.  Both Russia and China are eager to take advantage of that weakness.  Ukraine politicians found themselves with their corrupt partner Biden and are likely to have to live with the consequences.  Biden's inept strategic thinking on energy and Russia has not bought him any sway with Putin.  I has emboldened him and enriched Russia.

See. also:

Ukraine crisis splits Congress