Georgia polling shows GOP with narrow lead

 Red States:

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The dynamics of these results are interesting. On the one hand, Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker is leading Democrat incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock by a point, with the former nearly reaching 50%. On the other hand, Trump-maligned incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp is leading his primary challenger and is actually up two points on Stacey Abrams in a head-to-head matchup.

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Regardless, forgetting the intraparty fighting on the Republican side, I see these numbers as bleak for Democrats. This is supposed to be the state that they are favored in, but it appears things are a toss-up at best and lean-Republican at worst. Further, Quinnipiac was a poll that way overestimated Democrat support in Georgia (and many other states) in 2020. If there’s any kind of left-leaning house effect left in their methodology, Walker and Kemp could actually be up 3-4 points right now.

Throw in the large enthusiasm advantage the GOP currently has, and the Republicans should probably be favored right now. That’s a disaster for Democrats. Georgia was their Alamo. They lose there on election night and it means a full-scale collapse has occurred.

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A Georgia blowout would be a real plus for the GOP.  Republicans are going to have to get the suburbs out to vote this time around and not stay home like they did in 2020. 

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