Sun belt politics favors GOP in 2024

 Washington Examiner:

Both parties' presidential tickets will have to contemplate campaign strategy in 2024 a bit differently than 2020 due to adjustments to how many Electoral College votes each state gets.

Texas and Florida, the second- and third-largest states, respectively, will have more votes this time in the 538-member Electoral College. Texas's House delegation will grow to 38 members, meaning it will have 40 electoral votes. And Florida will have 30 electoral votes, one more than in 2020.

The gains, driven by population changes over the past decade, were part of a massive dataset released by the Census Bureau on Monday.

In the short run, this means the GOP could see an advantage as the party seeks to take back the White House in the next presidential election three and a half years from now. Florida is a Republican-trending state, while the longtime GOP bastion of Texas still favors the party, even though it's becoming more competitive.

"Reapportionment will advantage Republicans because votes are shifting to states that lean towards the GOP. Places like Florida and Texas will be big winners, and Republican presidential candidates do very well there," Darrell West, vice president and director of governance studies at the left-leaning Brookings Institution, told the Washington Examiner.

Texas, where political analysts and strategists have predicted a tide turning toward Democrats, is likely to be more competitive in presidential cycles, but just how soon it may compete as a battleground is an open question.

West argues the Lone Star State will be one to watch in 2028 but may not carry as much play in 2024. But with shifting demographics turning the state more politically purple, in seven years' time, Texas may be a state a Democratic presidential nominee can fight to take.

"I'd be surprised if Texas was competitive in 2024, just because it'll take a while for the political and demographic changes to unfold, but by 2028, Texas very likely could be competitive," West said.

Florida, on the other hand, is also experiencing a population boom, but the demographics seem to lean more conservative, said GOP strategist Doug Heye.

For example, in 2020, Cuban Americans were a key factor in giving former President Donald Trump a victory in his adopted home state.

"Florida will be more important, but I would argue that Florida is less of a swing state now than it was 21 years ago," Heye said.

...

I think this piece misjudges what is happening in Texas.  I think Texas Hispanics are losing their affection for Democrats and Biden's disastrous border policy is accelerating that move.  Some Texas cities are trending blue, but the suburbs are not as blue as Democrats think.  The rural area of Texas is a bright red area.  The Californians that moved to Texas also tend to be more conservatives than the ones who stayed out there.  Both the Californians and the New Yorkers who moved to the sunbelt did it in large part to escape confiscatory taxation and it would be remarkable crazy for them to vote for Democrats after doing so.

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