Inside the polls shows Biden in trouble

 Monica Showalter:

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The innards of these polls actually show a lot of trouble. 

For one thing, independent support for Biden is falling.  RedState points out that the big weak spot for Biden among independents is his atrocious handling of the border.  The Fox News poll's question about whether security is better or worse or the same at the border showed that 46% of voters felt that border security in 2021 is worse than two years ago, a sharp spike from the 17% who said that in 2018.  Independents accounted for much of that fall.

For another, these pollsters oversampled Democrats.  Most showed large margins of registered Democrats sampled that didn't coincide with the percentages of voters who voted from both parties in 2020.  That breakdown should have been 36% registered Republicans and 37% registered Democrats.  It wasn't.  The pollsters polled as if Democrats amounted to as much as 50% of the majority.

NewsBusters pointed out that with all this oversampling of Democrats to rig the results, they still didn't get the rosy report they wanted, which suggests things could be very bad, indeed.

"Partisanship" was blamed for the trouble by at least one television pundit, which could mean several things.

One, Biden is the most partisan president in history, governing as a radical far-left Corbynite, seeking to dismantle the Constitution, the public fisc, the Courts, America's energy independence, and the voting system itself.  That's going down particularly badly among independents, but also includes Republicans.

Two, Biden has pledged "unity" and done exactly the opposite of what he got the public to focus on.  He's initiated transgender bathrooms, dismantled the border, triggered a border surge, introduced wokester education, fomented racial hate, and attempted to smear any state attempting reasonable measures to ensure voter rights and ballot integrity.  All of those things are unpopular except among the radical left crazies.

A third piece of news is related to this partisanship/unity issue that comes via email from Raghavan Mayur and his TIPPInsights.com site. The IBD/TIPP poll the firm produces is America's most accurate pollster.

The link can be read here* -- and it has a lot of useful charts. I will paste in some regarding his newly released TIPP Unity Index and summarize.  He writes:

The TIPP Unity Index registered a somber reading of 37.8, reflecting the country's high level of division in April.

A whopping 61 percent believe the country is divided, while only 33 percent believe it is united.

The Unity Index

TechnoMetrica, in its tradition of out-of-box thinking, developed the Unity Index, a barometer of the country's unity, based on the question:

In general, would you say the United States is Very United, Somewhat United, Not Very United, or Not At All United?

He found this:

In April, thirty of the 36 demographic groups we track believe the country is divided.

The demographic groups that believe the country is united are in the 25 to 44 age group, urban residents, those earning $75K or more, Democrats, and those with a college degree or higher.

On the other end, the groups that feel extreme division in the country are 65 or older, rural residents, independents, some college education, and Republicans.

Where was the discord highest?  You guessed it: on presidential leadership, where the standard deviation came in at 12.4.  Other issues above the mean were "direction of country," "morals and ethics," and "standing in the world."  The areas below the mean were "national outlook," "economic outlook," "quality of life," and "financial stress."

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I am not feeling the "unity" either.  I think Biden is listening to too many radicals on the left who think unity means everyone must agree with them or else.  They seem to be living in their own closets away from the real world.

It should also be noted that most pollsters got the 2020 election mostly wrong by oversampling Democrats.  They predicted a landslide and a gain of House seats for Democrats.  They have been scratching their head about what went wrong and then they come out with a garbage poll that oversamples Democrats by a significant amount.