The play on the debt ceiling this week

Major Garrett:

...

Republicans want to play short. That means extending the debt ceiling seven to eight months, holding another vote then and locking in deeper spending cuts about the time the GOP primaries and caucuses are in full roar. The economics? Republicans argue the nation has extended the debt ceiling for six months or less numerous times and shouldn't fear it now. Republicans know they moved President Obama from a demand for a "clean" (meaning no strings attached) debt ceiling to a weeks-long debate about the magnitude of deficit-reduction. Phase two.

Democrats want to play long. They want to avoid a debt ceiling debate until after the 2012 election. Obama and House congressional leaders don't want to re-litigate the nation's debt load before facing voters. If they do, the ugly contours of this debate (debtor nation adrift in a stagnant economy) are unlikely to change for the better. Plus, a short-term fix intensifies the threat of a downgrade of America's AAA bond rating - a specter that would haunt Obama and congressional Democrats right as the GOP presidential race receives maximum media coverage.

These calculations and these alone will drive the size of spending cuts. Policy no longer drives politics — as it did during the various negotiations — Vice President Joseph Biden's or Obama's.

...
I suspect the Reid formulation has the best prospect at this point if he can get specific on the cuts he is proposing. Otherwise his proposed cuts are just more fairy dust in the form of projections whose assumptions are likely invalid.

I do think the Boehner plan would provide more substantive cuts to the projected deficit, and give the Congress time to do its job.

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