Will Norks get away with sinking of South Korean ship?

Benny Avni:

This is the true asymmetry of today's warfare: They kill; we talk.

For centuries, until the 20th century's final decades, any provocation of the magnitude of North Korea's sinking of the Cheonan would lead to all-out war. Bloody, cruel and costly, hostilities would end only when the losing side agreed to humiliating conditions.

Even in today's rule books -- devised over centuries of warfare and enshrined in the treaties we call "international law" -- the March 26 incident constitutes a clear declaration of war: With no provocation, a North Korean submarine launched a torpedo against the Cheonan, a South Korean vessel patrolling on its own side of the sea border.

South Korea, aided by American and other international forensic investigators, issued an exhaustive report last week, establishing the North Korea culpability. But no one expects war.

Any hint of renewed Korean War would sink the Seoul stock market. And in an interconnected world already on edge over economic uncertainty, that collapse could easily trigger a worldwide panic.

So, in response to Pyongyang's act of war, Seoul is merely planning to drop the remnants of aid it gives to the crazy sister state to its north, and conduct a joint naval exercise with US ships in the region. It's also asking the UN Security Council to convene today to do . . . something.

After long consultations, the Security Council will issue a rebuke -- in the toughest diplomatic language that China will allow. (Beijing will keep propping up North Korea, as it has for decades, though its chief concern now is fear of a flood of refugees.)

But the UN can't offer more than words. According to our UN ambassador, Susan Rice, last year's resolution against North Korea established the toughest sanction regime against any nation to date. Diplomats from the region tell me they can't see how they can tighten them any further.

...

Probably the only real question despite the Nork denial is whether they will add the sinking as a sells point in their brochure on the torpedo in question. When it clear that the sinking will not lead to military action against the Norks, the regime will then start bragging about the sinking.