Nork's starving army redies for combat?

Mark Tran:

The sabres are rattling on the Korean peninsula with reports that Pyongyang has told its military to prepare for war after Seoul's accusation that the North was responsible for the torpedo attack on a South Korean warship.

Even as the level of hostility rises, both sides have sent clear signals they would refrain from initiating any attack.

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Firing test missiles is one thing, but the North Korean army is in no shape to fight against a well-trained, well-equipped modern army from the South, backed by 29,000 US troops. North Korean forces, in contrast, have obsolete kit and morale is believed to be poor.

North Korean army defectors have described how soldiers take naps in the afternoon instead of training because there is so little to eat, a detail that reveals how the country's chronic food shortages affect not just the civilian population but also its fighting forces.

The suspension of aid from the South since 2008 has worsened the North's economic problems, and UN sanctions imposed after last year's nuclear test have also cut into the trade in arms, the North's key source of hard cash.

South Korea has no problem feeding its army, but President Lee Myung-bak, who has ditched the kid gloves approach of his predecessors, has foreign investors to worry about. The latest report of Kim calling for war readiness has unnerved financial markets. The South Korean won slid to a 10-month low on the news, forcing South Korean authorities to step in to support the currency.

China, the dominant power in the region and probably the only country that can exert any influence on Pyongyang, will also want to keep its wayward neighbour in check. Beijing's priority is to prevent North Korea's collapse and a refugee exodus on its southern border.

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The attack on the Cheonan is the latest North Korean act of aggression.

In 1983 a hit squad killed the South Korean foreign minister and other top officials during a ceremony in Burma. That followed previous assassination attempts on other South Korean leaders in 1974 and 1968.

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Neither side can afford open hostilities, but at some point there needs to be real consequences for North Korean aggression. I doubt the UN is up to the task, and it does not appear that the Chinese are going to impose sanctions on them.

Probably the best approach is one where the South Koreans are more eager to retaliate and the US is cast as barely able to restrain them unless China does something with the Norks to stop the aggression.