Bluster on the border between North and South Korea

Mark Tran:

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Even as the level of hostility rises, both sides have sent clear signals they would refrain from initiating any attack. South Korea has said it would not retaliate, despite investigations that blamed North Korea for sinking the Cheonan in March, killing 46 sailors.

Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader, ordered officers to be ready for combat, but a top commander has said the North would not start the shooting.

Firing test missiles is one thing, but the North Korean army is in no shape to fight against a well-trained, well-equipped modern army from the South, backed by 29,000 US troops. North Korean forces, in contrast, have obsolete kit and morale is believed to be poor.

North Korean army defectors have described how soldiers take naps in the afternoon instead of training because there is so little to eat, a detail that reveals how the country's chronic food shortage affects not just the civilian population but also North Korea's fighting forces.

The suspension of aid from the South since 2008 has worsened the North's economic problems, and UN sanctions imposed after last year's nuclear test have also cut into the trade in arms, the North's key source of hard cash.

South Korea has no problem feeding its army, but President Lee Myung-bak, who has ditched the kid gloves approach of his predecessors, has foreign investors to worry about. The latest report of Kim calling for war readiness has unnerved financial markets. The South Korean won slid to a 10-month low today, forcing South Korean authorities to step in to support the currency.

China, the dominant power in the region and probably the only country that can exert any influence on Pyongyang, will also want to keep its wayward neighbour in check. Beijing's priority is to prevent North Korea's collapse and a refugee exodus on its southern border.

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It would be a costly war for both sides, and that maybe what restrains them. The problem for the South Koreans is the damage to the population centers along the DMZ that are well within range of well dug in artillery. Taking out that artillery would be very costly, but once done, the Norks would be in for a pounding.