Obama care's tough sell

Patrick McIlheran:

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One big employer, Caterpillar, reported last week that one odd tax increase in the bill would cost it $100 million in the first year. You can bet its future laid-off employees didn't see that coming.

Or take the cost of insurance. It's likely to rise far and fast, at least for individual policies, now that insurers must take all comers. Coughing up blood? You weigh 450? You're in, and insurers can't charge you extra for it - but they can raise rates generally.

The rule that you must buy insurance doesn't start until 2014. Without such a rule, economists point out, insurance buyers will be sicker people looking for an immediate payout, raising prices still further. "They'll charge what they need to charge," predicted Jon Rauser, a Milwaukee insurance broker who's written extensively on health care reform.

They won't if, in a panic, Washington slams on rate controls and consequently destroys the industry - opening the way, imagine that, for some "public option." Whoever wrote the bill, said Rauser, is "either incredibly ignorant of how insurance works or they're incredibly cunning about driving insurers out of business."

It is received wisdom that entitlements, once granted, cannot be rescinded. But unlike Medicare, where benefits started immediately and national bankruptcy was years in the future, Obamacare's big subsidies don't start until 2014. Insurance-market chaos and taxes hit sooner.

That's a helpful reality, says U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan. The Janesville Republican points out that because Obamacare doesn't come with an immediate constituency - but has lots of potential victims really soon - there's room for conservatives to make a compelling case for replacing it with something better, a case he's already been making.

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And, I might point out, Obamacare is doing worse in the polls this week than ever. Even friendly CNN found 59% of the country opposed. That poll and others consistently find that most people understand the scheme will worsen their own fiscal lot and that it does nothing to slow the rise in health care prices. This is why the president and his party will spend the months before the election reselling their plan to you. They are trying to stave off nationwide buyer's remorse. They do not want you thinking about alternatives.

Their disadvantage is this: Unwrapped, Obamacare looks far different. Free health care is not at hand. Even when the subsidies begin, it probably will shock many people to find they still must pay to buy insurance. For many, their encounter with Obamacare will be the $695 penalty the IRS will take out of their tax refunds for not buying it. Or it will be the authorities' new will to regulate all kinds of heretofore personal matters, now that the government's responsible for your health.

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The CNN poll joins the Rasmussen and the CBS polls discussed in the post below showing this is going to be a debacle for Democrats. The points McIlheran makes will just add to their problem of selling this monstrosity.