What is different about this Iran rebellion

Amir Taheri:

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the differences between the 1979 events and those of today are even more striking.

To start with, the ruling establishment back then remained reasonably united until the very end. Even after the shah had left the country, no key regime figure switched sides. Today, however, the ruling elite is split down the middle. Almost as many regime dignitaries have sided with Mousavi as have backed Ahmadinejad.

In 1979, the people looked to the Shiite clergy for leadership. This time, the clergy is pushed into the background. The new "moral references" of Iranian society are no longer clerics; they are intellectuals, academics, lawyers and independent trade-union leaders. Whatever the struggle's outcome, one thing is certain: Mullahs will never regain their position of moral authority in Iranian politics.

Another difference is that the ruling elite in 1979 had little stomach for a fight. Many of its members had homes and investments abroad and thus could just pack and leave -- they weren't forced to fight with their backs to the wall.

But the overwhelming majority of today's ruling elite has no fallback position. If driven from power, "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei or Ahmadinejad would have nowhere to go. They have no choice but to fight to the bitter end. This time, it is in the opposition camp that one finds most of those who can pack and go to golden exile abroad.

There's yet another difference. In 1979, a majority of Iranians would probably have voted for the shah, had there been elections. Few, however, were prepared to fight for him in the streets. This time, the regime may well lose a free and fair election but still is capable of fielding large numbers of supporters who are ready to die and kill for it.

Finally, one must take into account differences between the shah and Khamenei.

The shah had no stomach for bloody repression. His constant, and rather charmingly naive, motto was: "A king cannot kill his own people."

In contrast, Khamenei has built his career as a tough street fighter. In his Friday sermon in Tehran declaring war on the opposition, he made it clear that he wouldn't shy away from a bloodbath in order to prevent regime change.

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It is the willingness of the current regime to murder its opponents that both highlights the courage of the demonstrators, and the ruthlessness of the regime. It effects how the battle is shaped. Shouting "God is Great" from the roof tops at night is a cry of resistance that is difficult for the religious bigots to suppress, although they are resorting to targeted home invasions to try to shut people up.

The coming general strike set for next Tuesday will also be a test of wills and the strength of the respective sides. The regime has shown a willingness to attack mass demonstrations of opposition. It will be harder for them to attack the passive aggressiveness of the general strike. They can strike back with firings, but if the strike is big enough they can't fire everyone.