The battle for Waziristan

Washington Post:

More than 70 years ago, the British army went to war against tribal forces loyal to a charismatic religious figure in what is now the Pakistani region of Waziristan. The ensuing guerrilla conflict lasted more than a decade. The British troops, though far more numerous and better armed, never captured the renegade leader and finally withdrew from the region.

Today, the Pakistani army is preparing to launch a major operation against another warrior in Waziristan, the ruthless Islamist commander Baitullah Mehsud. Taking a lesson from history and its own recent failures, the army is attempting to isolate and weaken Mehsud before sending its troops into battle.

Every day for the past two weeks, Pakistani bombers have crisscrossed Mehsud's territory, pounding his suspected hideouts and killing dozens of his fighters, including 16 who officials said died in bombing raids Saturday. Military forces have also surrounded the region to choke off Mehsud's access to weapons and fuel from outside.

"We are trying to shape the environment before we move in for the fight," Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, the chief military spokesman, said in an interview. "We are also trying to minimize the loss of life. Ours is the only institution that can stand up to the militants, but public support is crucial. When we do move in, it must only be against Baitullah and his group. We cannot afford to provoke a tribal uprising."

So far, the effort has produced mixed results. On Tuesday, a Mehsud loyalist assassinated a key pro-government tribal leader in South Waziristan, and U.S. drone strikes killed 46 people at the funeral of a slain Mehsud commander, muddying the waters of tribal loyalties and antipathies.

"It is now clear that any tribals who side with the army will be violently suppressed," said Rifaat Hussain, a professor of defense studies at Quaid-i-Azam University here. "They may tacitly support the state, but they will not dare actively support it." He also noted that many army officers are from the same ethnic Pashtun group as Mehsud, making them reluctant to take him on.

As the days pass without the launch of a full-scale operation, experts said Mehsud -- who army officials estimate commands about 10,000 tribal fighters -- has had the time to gather support from sympathizers in other areas of Pakistan and abroad.

Since April, the army has enjoyed unprecedented public backing for a series of anti-militant operations, because of a mixture of high-profile terrorist bombings and revelations of cruel excesses by Taliban forces in the northwestern Swat Valley. But lately, some Pakistani commentators have cast doubt on the wisdom of taking on Mehsud's fanatical hordes.

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What the Pakistan army has going for it that the British did not have is the hostile environment the US has crated in Afghanistan for Mehsud's forces. That means he has less room to maneuver if the Pakistan army moves on Waziristan.

Pakistan has shown no sense of backing off at this point. They have put a bounty on Mehsud and other leaders heads to go with ones already there by the US. It should also be noted that one of the reasons for the backing of the army is anger at Mehsud for his attacks on non combatants in Pakistan. These attacks have clearly backfired on the terrorist religious bigot.

The article goes on to make the claim that the Hellfire strikes are counterproductive but there is little evidence to support that claim other than that a few Pakistanis repeat it. I think the attacks have been supportive of the Pakistan army's action, particularly the recent ones that hit Taliban leaders gathered for a funeral.