The Republican comeback

Politico:

For the first time since their 2006 election drubbing, top Republicans see signs — however faint — of a political resurgence over the next year.

At first blush, this sounds absurd. After all, polls show the GOP more unpopular than ever, and the John Ensign sex scandal serves as a vivid, real-time reminder of why many see the party as a collection of hypocrites.

But several trends suggest this optimism might not be as far-fetched as it seems.

Polls show that the GOP is wise to focus most of its attacks on spending, government intervention and job losses....

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Polls show that Obama's chief vulnerability is public concern over the soaring deficit. And as the sticker shock of a trillion-dollar-plus health care plan takes hold, these concerns are only likely to grow.

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And, as is key in political debates, Republicans have distilled their argument down to a bumper sticker slogan: "President Obama spends too much, taxes too much and borrows too much."

Expect to hear that refrain in upcoming spending fights — and with regularity in the midterm elections.

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Obama promised his stimulus plan would keep unemployment below 10 percent, and some of his advisers said it would remain below 8 percent. But now the president himself says it will hit 10 percent this year.

The administration's technique of incorporating "jobs saved" into its accounting is being met with increased skepticism — and is unlikely to resonate if unemployment lines run long.

"I think his biggest vulnerability right now is that unemployment is going to exceed 10 percent and be there for some time," said House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.). "The stimulus bill was meant to sustain and create new jobs. And it hasn't done it."

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With polls showing growing public unease with government intervention, Republicans are certain to spend the next 17 months reminding voters of the bailouts that don't work.

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As Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) will tell you, there are now 83 House Democrats in districts Bush carried in 2004, compared with just five Republicans in districts that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won that year.

The congressional Democrats who picked up GOP seats in the South and in the heartland in 2006 and 2008 ran against something, not as acolytes of a new liberal agenda. Now they may find themselves on the defensive against Republicans who will argue that they're part of a ruling party that's out of step with their districts.

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There is much more.

I think the Obama screw ups on national security should also be in the mix. The closing of Gitmo was a mistake that will be hard for Democrats to defend and it will be an even bigger issue as the inmates are released or moved next year during the election. Then there is the debt issue that is driving the Tea Party movement and causing Obama's loss of support among independents. The anti energy policy of Obama and the Democrats will be hard to defend as it raises the cost of living for everyone. I still don't think the health care issue is as big as Democrats claim and the cost of their program will feed into the debt issue.