Not so devine power in Tehran

Amir Taheri:

THE events of the last four days in Iran have reduced "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei to just another politician -- and the crisis has not yet ended.

On Saturday, Khamenei declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election to be "an historic triumph for Islam" and invited Iranians to celebrate. Just 48 hours later, the same Khamenei was promising a recount and "other measures" to correct "errors that might have occurred" in the election.

The partial U-turn came after millions of Iranians poured into the streets of the capital Tehran and other major cities with shouts of "Marg bar Doktator!" (Death to the dictator!), calling for the election to be annulled.

No one now expects Khamenei to order a real recount, let alone a re-run of the election -- if he can get away with it. Yet his hasty endorsement of the results, followed by his partial U-turn, has already shattered a good part of his authority.

In the Khomeinist system, Khamenei is supposed to represent divine power on earth, via the "Hidden Imam." He is supposed to be the leader of all the world's 1.3 billion Muslims, with the power to suspend the rules of Islam itself, if and when he so wishes.

His word is supposed to be final on all matters; when he speaks, Allah has spoken. Now he looks like just another politician engaged in a bitter power struggle for the control of the country.

The rigged election has highlighted a three-way split within the regime:

* One faction -- call it "the bitter-enders" -- still believes that nothing has changed, that it can continue with Ahmadinejad's agenda for "preparing the world for the return of the Hidden Imam."

* A second faction, effectively led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and now including Mir Hussein Mousavi (the top losing candidate in the presidential election), hopes to keep the regime intact by softening its image at home and abroad and moving toward a Chinese-style system in which tight political control is combined with economic liberalization.

* A third faction believes that the entire Khomeinist system has passed its sell-by date and that Iran is ripe for regime change in the same way that the Soviet bloc countries were in the late 1980s. This faction is led by people like former Interior Minister Abdallah Nuri (a mid-ranking cleric), former rector of Tehran University Muhammad Abbas Sheybani and former members of parliament like Mahmoud A'alami and Imadeddin Baqi.

...

The rigged election has also split the military. The third losing candidate was Gen. Mohsen Rezai Mir-Qaed -- who led the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for 16 years.

...

However the current struggle turns out, the regime has lost a good part of its legitimacy. It is also made clear that peaceful evolution within the regime is not possible. This makes the "regime change" option attractive for the first time since the mid-1990s.

Don't expect to see Obama backing the more rational alternative of regime change. As Stephen Hayes points out, Obama's muddled expressions seem to lead to the conclusion that he wants to keep the radicals in power so he can cut a deal with them.

...

Under President Obama, our approach to Iran--the world's foremost state sponsor of terror, a rogue regime racing toward nuclear capability--is not only not regime change, it's de facto regime preservation. So he delicately sought to say something that would mute the growing criticism of his silence--"It would be wrong for me to be silent about what we've seen on the television over the last few days," he said--without saying anything that could further destabilize the Iranian regime.

It was a missed opportunity. He got bad advice. "Our hated enemy for 30 years finally comes to a crisis moment," says Michael Anton, director of communications at the National Security Council during George W. Bush's first term. "And many of the same people who have been telling us for at least 20 years that the population is largely on our side decide to use this moment not to give the regime a push, or to throw the population a life vest, but to help keep the hated enemy in power."

...

That is the way it looks from Washington, Texas too. A NY Post Editorial also calls it:

...

Of course, Obama knows that speaking truth to the prevailing power in Tehran would gravely endanger what he really wants to do: negotiate.

...

So what's a bit of blood on the cobblestones?

If you're Barack Obama, nothing.

Given the opportunity to lead and be on the side of freedom, Obama votes present.