GOP looks at 2010 potential gains

Washington Times:

Sen. John Cornyn arguably has one of the toughest political jobs in Congress: overseeing the Republican senatorial campaign effort for 2010 in an election cycle when most analysts say the GOP will likely lose more Senate seats.

It is still early in the two-year midterm campaign cycle and "the landscape could change significantly. But right now at this point, the Democrats are positioned to pick up two or three seats," said veteran elections forecaster Stuart Rothenberg.

"History has dealt Cornyn a bad hand. The Republican brand is damaged, they have a number of vulnerable open seats. If he can break even in this cycle, I'm sure, privately, he'd be thrilled," Mr. Rothenberg said.

But the two-term Texas senator doesn't see things that way at all.

"I wouldn't agree with that," he said of Mr. Rothenberg's forecasts. "Will there be losses? It's too early to say. If we're lucky to have the candidate recruitment fall into place, those numbers will change dramatically."

He acknowledged his party faces a tough election cycle that he calls "a mixed bag." Still, he expects the national political landscape will look a great deal different in the fall of 2010 than it does now, with President Obama's job-approval ratings topping 60 percent and Democrats riding high with nearly 60 seats in the Senate.

"Given the overreaching of the administration on spending, borrowing, nationalizing big sectors of our economy, I think the 2010 elections will be a referendum on the administration's policies," Mr. Cornyn said in an interview with The Washington Times."

"Unemployment will remain very high next year. There is a real danger we will see inflation take off. There will still be massive government debt, and unfunded liabilities are looming. … I think the economy will remain weak at a minimum," he said.

With polls showing almost half of Americans already opposed to Mr. Obama's $787 billion economic stimulus package and expressing doubts it will create many jobs, Mr. Cornyn said he already sees evidence that "Obama's personal popularity no longer carries over into the popularity of his policies."

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But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told The Washington Times that Mr. Cornyn "actually did want to do it. He didn't have to be drafted. He's aware of the challenge and was anxious to step up to the plate to do the job."

"The early indications are that he's doing it in an outstanding fashion. One of the measures of that is money raised. He's raised almost 40 percent more than his committee raised two years ago. The other is candidate recruitment and he's been effective there," Mr. McConnell said.

Mr. Cornyn's early recruits include former Bush administration budget director Rob Portman, who is running for the open seat in Ohio; Gov. Charlie Crist, whom he talked into running for the open seat in Florida; and former Rep. Rob Simmons, who is mounting a strong challenge to vulnerable Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut.

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He needs to find some strong candidates in Colorado and Illinois to challenge Democrat weakness in those states. The Democrats in Illinois will have the stench of corruption following whomever they select. Cornyn has certainly been much more aggressive than Republicans were in 2008.

I think he is right to think that Democrats will be much less popular in 2010. Besides the debt issue, by that election the Democrats will have pushed a disastrous energy policy and health care plan.