Can bin Laden leave his hidey hole?

William Maclean:

Under pressure in his Pakistan enclaves, Osama bin Laden is facing a familiar quandary: Where to go next? The answer is unlikely to be Yemen or Somalia, despite their new prominence as regional al Qaeda sanctuaries.

U.S. drone attacks and a looming Pakistan army offensive against one of al Qaeda's main allies in a northwestern tribal area have stirred speculation that bin Laden's men are seeking a less risky refuge for their anti-Western campaign.

But simply leaving Pakistan's remote Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) could expose the world's most wanted man and his entourage of planners and bodyguards to satellite detection and the curious gaze of a local population of uncertain loyalty.

"The moment that al Qaeda has to leave the FATA, that is the end of al Qaeda as an organization," said Thomas Hegghammer, a research fellow at Harvard University.

Yemen was "a pretty good safe haven" for lower-level members of al Qaeda provided the group did not get too strong and did not bring in the leadership. The presence of senior figures would provoke a tough security response from the government and the United States, he said.

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"It's conceivable al Qaeda could move. But it would be hard to find safe haven in another state," said David Claridge, managing director of Janusian Security Risk Management.

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I think that any attempt to move would make bin Laden and Zawahiri extremely vulnerable. They are already reduced to using primitive methods of communication for command an control. In fact, I don't find it conceivable that they could get transportation out of the area without being detected and destroyed. If they attempted to move it would be a gift to the US forces looking for them.

That is what makes the Pakistan offensive so important. It is putting pressure on their allies that makes it difficult for them to avoid movement.

Strategy Page has more on the retreat of al Qaeda.