A new Iran assessment

Bill Gertz:

The U.S. intelligence community in May completed a major National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran that concluded the Iranian military is building up its missile and conventional forces but that its forces remain relatively outdated, according to U.S. officials.

The classified assessment, circulated to senior policy-makers, comes amid rising tensions in the region over Iran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment and concerns that Israel or the United States will take military action to knock out Iranian nuclear facilities.

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... one of the strategic issues discussed in the estimate is whether Iranian military forces have the capability to follow through on threats to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil shipping in the event of a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran. An estimated 20 to 40 percent of the world's oil passes through the 21-mile strait.

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Asked about Iranian Revolutionary Guards' threats to shut down Hormuz, Adm. Mullen told reporters July 2 that:

"The analysis that I have certainly indicates that they have capabilities which could certainly hazard the Straits of Hormuz," Adm. Mullen said July 2. "But ... I believe that the ability to sustain that is not there."

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DIA Director Lt. Gen. Michael Maples told Congress in February that the Iranian navy buildup includes "asymmetric equipment such as fast missile patrol boats as well as anti-ship cruise missiles and naval mines."

Gen. Maples also said Iran is "building an asymmetric capability to counter more advanced, adversary ground forces, including through enhancements to its Basij volunteer forces, which would play a large role in an asymmetric fight." Its missiles can hit targets in Israel and central Europe, he said.

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We should not confuse Iran capacity with her intentions. Despite her lack of capacity, that does not mean she will not act irrationally. She is already doing that by pursuing uranium enrichment. She will use whatever assets she has if she strikes out at the world. We need to be prepared to destroy those assets early on in any conflict with Iran. See the post below on Ralph Peters' latest column for more on defeating Iran.