Obama and Hillary tied while McCain has big lead

Washington Post:

Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) are running roughly even nationally as the battle for the Democratic nomination heads into Tuesday's big round of primaries and caucuses, while Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) has jumped to a dominating lead over his remaining rivals in the Republican race, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Two days before voters in 24 states go to their polling places, 47 percent of likely Democratic voters said they back Clinton and 43 percent said they support Obama, with neither candidate decisively benefiting from the departure of former senator John Edwards (N.C.) from the race. By contrast, McCain's wins in primaries in South Carolina and Florida and the winnowing of the Republican field have had a dramatic result: The senator from Arizona is now the clear front-runner for his party's nomination.

McCain leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 48 percent to 24 percent among probable GOP voters as he continues to rapidly consolidate support, particularly among moderates and liberals. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee runs third in the new poll with 16 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) is fourth at 7 percent.

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While McCain has a substantial lead he still does not have a majority of the GOP voters. In fact he has about the same percentage of GOP voters as Obama and Hillary have of Democrat voters. What he has is a divided opposition. However the Paul voters are unlikely to be Republican voters this fall. Their position on the war is almost identical or even more radical than the Democrat position. They will probably vote third party or vote Democrat. Conservatives are split between Romney and Huckabee, which means the chances of stopping McCain are remote.

Both of the Democrats have serious problems going into the fall. Hillary started this campaign with the highest negatives of any candidate and that number has not shrunk by virtue of her campaign. Obama is being rejected by Hispanics in huge numbers, because of prejudice and jealousy of some in that group. He si embraced by the kook fringe on the war in Iraq and when he is asked specific questions on it and the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan, he is embarrassingly naive.