Human intelligence improving in Pakistan?

B. Raman, Outlook India:

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The strike of February 28 was apparently as precise as that of January 29, 2008, and would have been possible only with human intelligence (HUMINT) and not technical intelligence (TECHINT).A significant sequel to the January 29 strike was there were no major protest demonstrations against the US by the villagers in the targeted area. This was because the strike and the HUMINT on which it was based were so accurate that there were no collateral civilian casualties. The lack of major demonstrations showed that the villagers do not mind precisely targeted attacks on jihadi terrorists provided the attacks kill only known terrorists and not innocent civilians.

In the past, almost every suspected US missile strike in the tribal belt had been followed by violent demonstrations because the strikes were based on intelligence, which proved to have been inaccurate, and resulted in the death of a large number of innocent civilians. Recent strikes by the US forces on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have been more precise and more successful in avoiding innocent civilian casualties.

It would be interesting to see whether there is any demonstration by the people of the area against the missile strike of February 28, 2008. It is not yet known whether there were any collateral casualties of civilians.

In an effort to improve HUMINT collection, the US intelligence had been announcing from time to time since 9/11 huge cash rewards amounting to millions of dollars to anyone providing accurate information relating to bin Laden, al-Zawahiri and other important terrorists operating from the tribal areas. Till the end of last year, there were not many takers for these reward amounts. Since the beginning of this year, there are indications that these offers of huge rewards have started helping in HUMINT collection.

bin Laden, Zawahiri and co must be worried men.

The speculation on the human intel is interesting. I think some of it is a result of our new bases on the border. We have also been making in roads with the tribes in Afghanistan who can freely move across the border and mix with the fighters in Pakistan. This has to be making the enemy very uncomfortable in what he thought was his safe houses.

The recent election in Pakistan also demonstrated substantial movement away from the Islamic supremacist. There is also a problem with the idea behind the supremacist philosophy. The basis of the philosophy is that the circumstances of Muslims is so bad because they are not pious enough. What they are finding is that those who cooperating with the US and the allies are doing better than those who have thrown their lot with al Qaeda and the Taliban. Many don't like living with the Islamic control freaks.