McCain does not close the deal

Jed Babbin:

John McCain’s strong showing in the February 5 primaries wasn’t enough to close the deal. He could have done it by winning enough delegates to be the prohibitive favorite or -- conversely -- by Mitt Romney making so poor a showing that he would be unwilling to fight on.

Before sunrise Wednesday, this is how it lined up:

McCain won ten of the twenty-one Republican primaries and caucuses, including five winner-take-all contests, resulting in a total (according to the Associated Press count) of 610 delegates of the 1191 needed to clinch the Republican nomination. The strong showing in WTA states of Missouri and New York were a substantial part of McCain’s total. McCain apparently also won delegate-rich California (though returns are not yet final, and California is not a WTA state).

Mitt Romney’s showing was poor, scoring only 266 delegates. Mike Huckabee came in third at 190. (These totals will vary as the California results become final.)

McCain came close, but may not have achieved the prohibitive favorite status that would guarantee Romney’s exit. Despite Gov. Mike Huckabee’s early (about 10:30 EST) declaration of a two-man race -- him and McCain -- Mitt Romney isn’t quitting. Romney said – only a few minutes after Huckabee’s pronouncement that, “This campaign is going on.”

It’s hard to see, though, how long Romney can continue. Now that McCain has momentum, Romney needs a probable path to the nomination to remain credible in the next round of primaries. Since the 1970s, Republicans have won the White House when they have solidly seized the southern states. But when the returns came in, Romney placed third in Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia. His wins -- in Utah and Massachusetts primaries, and Alaska and North Dakota caucuses – are too scattered and small to provide a realistic foundation for a nomination.

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A McCain-Huckabee ticket now appears a real possibility. The two get along better than either does with Romney. If they are strong in the remaining February primaries -- DC, Maryland, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin -- Romney’s chances may evaporate before month’s end.

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Last night Karl Rove described a McCain-Huckabee ticket as one that doubled McCain's current troubles with conservatives like Rush Limbaugh. McCain is just ornery and stubborn enough to do something that self destructive, but perhaps wiser heads will persuade him otherwise.

Babbin also offers some advice McCain is unlikely to take in preparing his remarks for CPAC. "... If he fails at CPAC -- and doesn’t win the CPAC straw poll (he finished dead last in 2007) -- the word will be out that the conservatives are off his team this year...." He recommends focusing on the courts, how he plans to win the war, and how he plans to control the borders.