Sadr forces still in retreat

Washington Post:

Posted at the door of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's office recently, a flier denounced the arrests of his followers. Up and down the barricaded street, soldiers and policemen loyal to his Shiite rivals stood sentry, some in tan armored personnel carriers, questioning anyone they suspected of links to the populist cleric.

Inside the shuttered office, five guards spoke frankly of their sense of vulnerability and weakness. Once in control of the streets of this southern city of holy sites, the Sadrists said they have been chased underground, their rivals at their heels.

The arrests of Sadr's loyalists are part of a broader power struggle between the two most powerful Shiite factions seeking to lead Iraq: the Sadrists, who are pushing for U.S. troops to withdraw, and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, the Bush administration's main Shiite ally. Given the nation's majority-Shiite population, this intensifying confrontation could play a major role in deciding Iraq's future.

This year's U.S. military offensive and dramatic shifts in tactics by both Sunni and Shiite groups are redrawing the balance of power across Iraq. With less violence between Sunnis and Shiites, festering struggles within each community may come to define the nature of the conflict. In the Shiite-dominated south, Sadr's main Shiite rivals are taking advantage of the surge in U.S. troops, as well as Sadr's imposition of a freeze on operations by his Mahdi Army militia, to make political gains.

"They are all gathering against us," said Ayad Abu Ali, a wiry, broad-shouldered militia guard who had sent his family into hiding and now hardly leaves the office.

U.S. forces have arrested hundreds of Mahdi Army militia members in Baghdad, creating voids in the leadership. This has emboldened Iraq's mostly Shiite security forces, loyal to the Supreme Council and other political parties, to reach for power in the south. In cities such as Karbala, Diwaniyah and, most recently, Hilla, scores of Sadr's followers are routinely being detained.

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Those who have tried to denigrate the effect of the surge point to the stand down of Mahdi Army, but it would never have happened without the surge. Sadr announced it only days after the surge was announced. He was wise to do so, since our forces had defeated his on numerous occasions already. What this story demonstrates is that the government has also been able to assert control over areas where his forces once dominated. I think he is largely finished as a military threat in Iraq in much the same way al Qaeda is. He can still use the power of a cock roach to make a mess, but he cannot dominate any area now.