Iowa and the LA Times outlier poll

Stuart Rothenberg:

Even before the death of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on Thursday, there were signs of continued churning in the GOP race, with Arizona Senator John McCain pulling even with and ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, according to knowledgeable observers.

In Iowa, the Republican contest continues to be a two-man race, with Romney so far retaining considerable strength against former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. In fact, in spite of a recent Los Angeles Times poll showing Huckabee with a 14-point lead over Romney, there is some reason to believe that Romney has closed that gap and that the GOP contest in the Iowa caucuses is much closer than the Times poll suggests.

While McCain is not yet in the mix in Iowa and shows few signs of joining Huckabee and Romney in the GOP top tier in the state, he could well finish a surprisingly strong third in the caucuses, which could get him positive media attention and boost him in New Hampshire.

For Giuliani, the Arizonan's growing strength is a significant problem. Fourth-place finishes for Giuliani in the first two contests, along with a resurgent McCain, could make McCain both more appealing to moderates and more likely to emerge as the consensus choice of conservatives as the race moves forward. That would make it much more difficult for the New Yorker to jump-start his campaign and almost impossible for him to pull away on February 5th, as he hopes to do.

The Republican races in Iowa and New Hampshire remain very fluid. But it now seems quite clear that reports of John McCain's political demise were far too premature.

The Bhutto assassination is likely to have an effect on both parties' nomination fights by elevating foreign policy and international concerns.

...
I think the assassination hurts Huckabee and the Democrats in general, because it exposes their naivety on foreign policy. John Edwards construct of the war on terror as a bumper sticker looks pretty ridiculous at this point. Obama's readiness to invade Pakistan looks absurd. Huckabee needs to go back to his bunker and rethink foreign policy doing so with fewer country metaphors.

If Huckabee really is 14 points ahead in Iowa it raises some real questions about the judgment of the voters who have given him that lead and suggest that his popularity is not based on Huckabee's campaign on issues other than his religious affiliation.

I note that Rothenberg does not mention Fred Thompson. Other reports say he has run out of advertising money and is relying solely on "earned" media at this point with his bus tour. If he runs out of gas in Iowa, it may be the end of his campaign.

Captain Ed says the LA Times used a very small sample of Republicans to get the results. You can compare the Iowa polls at Real Clear Politics. A strategic vision poll with a larger Republican sample puts Huckabee up by two over Romney.

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