US may use Pakistan tribes in fight with al Qaeda?

NY Times:

A new and classified American military proposal outlines an intensified effort to enlist tribal leaders in the frontier areas of Pakistan in the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, as part of a broader effort to bolster Pakistani forces against an expanding militancy, American military officials said.

If adopted, the proposal would join elements of a shift in strategy that would also be likely to expand the presence of American military trainers in Pakistan, directly finance a separate tribal paramilitary force that until now has proved largely ineffective and pay militias that agree to fight Al Qaeda and foreign extremists, officials said. The United States now has only about 50 troops in Pakistan, a Pentagon spokesman said, a force that could grow by dozens under the new approach.

The new proposal is modeled in part on a similar effort by American forces in Anbar Province in Iraq that has been hailed as a great success in fighting foreign insurgents there. But it raises the question of whether such partnerships can be forged without a significant American military presence on the ground in Pakistan. And it is unclear whether enough support can be found among the tribes.

Altogether, the broader strategic move toward more local support is being accelerated because of concern about instability in Pakistan and the weakness of the Pakistani government, as well as fears that extremists with havens in the tribal areas could escalate their attacks on allied troops in Afghanistan. Just in recent weeks, Islamic militants sympathetic to Al Qaeda and the Taliban have already extended their reach beyond the frontier areas into more settled areas, most notably the mountainous region of Swat.

The tribal proposal, a strategy paper prepared by staff members of the United States Special Operations Command, has been circulated to counterterrorism experts but has not yet been formally approved by the command’s headquarters in Tampa, Fla. Some other elements of the campaign have been approved in principle by the Americans and Pakistanis and await financing, including $350 million over several years to help train and equip the Frontier Corps, a paramilitary force that currently has about 85,000 members and is recruited from border tribes.

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The new counterinsurgency campaign is also a vivid example of the American military’s asserting a bigger role in a part of Pakistan that the Central Intelligence Agency has overseen almost exclusively since the Sept. 11 attacks.

Small numbers of United States military personnel have served as advisers at the division and corps level of the Pakistani Army in the tribal areas, giving planning advice and helping to integrate American intelligence, according to one senior American officer with long service in the region.

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There is an active proposal to aid the Pakistani government with its counterinsurgency operations, but it would work through the Pakistani army. Perhaps that is what this plan is about, but as presented by Carlotta Gall and other reporters at the Times it sounds more like magical thinking than strategy.

The Anbar tribes had a reason to rally to our cause since their people were being slaughtered by al Qaeda and al Qaeda was trying to get their women. I am not aware that al Qaeda has behaved so badly in the tribal areas of Pakistan. In fact the tribes have received the al Qaeda fighters as guest and by custom they are bound to defend them unless the al Qaeda do something to dishonor the tribes. The Uzbeks for example have been in trouble with some of the tribes and many had to flea to the Tor Bora area earlier this year.

At this point it appears that this story is missing several key elements needed for it to make sense.