Poll shows Chavez "reforms " losing

Reuters:

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has lost his lead eight days before a referendum on ending his term limit, an independent pollster said on Saturday, in a swing in voter sentiment against the Cuba ally.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters oppose Chavez's proposed raft of constitutional changes to expand his powers, compared with 39 percent in favor, a survey by respected pollster Datanalisis showed.

Just weeks ago, Chavez had a 10-point lead for his proposed changes in the OPEC nation that must be approved in a referendum, the polling company said.

Despite the swing, company head Luis Vicente Leon said he did not rule out a comeback by the popular president.

Chavez has trounced the opposition at the polls on average once a year and can deploy a huge state-backed machinery to get out the vote, Leon said.

Still, the survey was the latest blow to Chavez. He has suffered a series of defections over his plan, including an ex-defense minister who had restored him to power after a brief 2002 putsch but who called Chavez's reforms a new "coup."

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There is much more.

The poll may be an outliers since it is so different from the others. But even if it is a valid snapshot of the voters, I don't think Chavez will allow a vote count that shows him actually losing. He is too invested in his constitutional coup to permit failure. If he can not win honestly, I expect him to use other means to make it look like he won. He is a blustering bully who will do whatever it takes to get what he wants.