Texas to decide Republican nominee?

Hugh Hewitt looks at the race an examines how the field will narrow to Giuliani and Romney.

...

Finally, expect the race to change dramatically after New Hampshire sends John McCain to the sidelines. The current nostalgia surge for the Arizona senator that is captivating MSMers has absolutely zero resonance in the Republican base. Sure, there are some New Hampshire die-hards for McCain, and yes he's got David Brooks' vote.

But go to any gathering of regular Republicans --the party people, the folks who care about this stuff, the non-Manhattan-Beltway media elite. They will always agree that Senator McCain is a great, great American. But they will never forget that he is a lousy senator and a terrible Republican, that he sponsored McCain-Feingold, the Gang of 14, and the McCain-Kennedy immigration fiasco and was behind the Senate's September '06 train-wreck that destroyed the GOP's momentum in the upper chamber. "Mavericks" don't win party nominations because those are conferred by people for whom the party matters. John McCain doesn't care about the GOP. And the GOP will never nominate him. Rush, Sean and others have been laying off Senator McCain in recent months because his campaign is so Quixotic, but we all know it is without any serious support. This has been obvious since early in 2006, but Senator McCain's many fans in the MSM have kept (his) hope alive. When he retires (or is forced) to the sidelines, the race changes because honest reporting will commence.

A prediction: When Senator McCain exits the race he will throw his support to Rudy, and that will hurt Giuliani with the regulars. That's when the race gets very interesting, when only Romney has the cash and the organization to go one-on-one with Rudy.

And then we will finally get the debates we deserve: Giuliani v. Romney -- on the war, the economy, judges, taxes, and immigration.

It is a two man race. It has been for a long, long time.

Texas votes on March 4. If Romney hasn't already run the table, that's when the GOP will issue its verdict. George W. Bush's state is going to decide whether the Massachusetts governor or the New York City mayor will carry on the polices that W set in motion.


I think he is right about Texas having a shot at putting one of the candidates over the top. I don't think a John McCain endorsement will hurt Rudy. Both of these guys have been two of the most effective campaigners for Republican nominees since 2002. They have attended campaign events all over the country to endorse candidates and worked hard for the party, but in the end candidates win elections and not endorsements. Romney's problem in the nomination process remains the ambiguity of his passions on emotional issues. To some extent Rudy has a similar problem, especially on issues like immigration, but I sense a trust to Rudy will eventually get that issue right and focus on protecting teh border and making people comply with the rule of law.

As for Texans, it would be nice to see some of that campaign money that if given by our citizens be spent here for a change. In the recent past our biggest influence on the process has been to pay for ads in some other state. Now we get the ads and get to decide the race too.

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