No immediate strike against Iran

Financial Times:

The Pentagon is not preparing a pre-emptive attack on Iran in spite of an increase in bellicose rhetoric from Washington, according to senior officers.

Admiral William Fallon, head of Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, told the Financial Times that while dealing with Iran was a “challenge”, a strike was not “in the offing”.

...

“That said we have to make sure that there is no mistake here on the part of the Iranians about our resolve in tending to business in the region,” said Adm Fallon. “There has got to be some combination of strength and willingness to engage. How to come up with the right combination of that is the real trick.”

Several senior active and retired miltary officers told the FT that the Pentagon believes striking Iran at this point would be a strategic mistake, as even a limited air strike could spark a broader conflict.

“The US might think in terms of a limited strike but military officers like to point out that the enemy has a vote,” said Jo-Anne Hart, an Iran expert at Brown University who consults for the military. Retired General Anthony Zinni, a former Centcom commander, said the US military was “stretched too thin” to fight a protracted war with Iran.

...

I think the stretched too thin argument is what Iran is relying on in taking an intransigent position. She does not think the threat of the sue of force is credible and Zinni is reinforcing that belief. I have said on several occasions we are not doing the kind of things that would be done in preparation for an attack on Iran. We are not moving the naval and air assets into place for such a strike. A limited strike against Iran would not be effective because we need to also destroy her ability to lash out which means destroying her ability to strike neighbors and ships in the Persian Gulf. The military seems to agree with this analysis.

I think the only way we attack Iran at this point is if she does something to provoke an attack directly, or she lashes out and attacks our forces after an Israeli attack. If Iran makes the mistake of directly attacking US forces, then all bets are off and she will find out what assets we still have available.

If the military seriously thinks we are over extended at this point it is just more evidence of how seriously flawed the thinking was that produced the Clinton cuts in the 90s. This should be a major issue in teh election, particularly if Hillary Clinton is the nominee.